MEXICO: Banxico Minutes Due Tomorrow
Jan-08 18:37
- Banxico will publish the minutes to its December 19 MPC meeting, when it cut the policy rate by 25bp in a unanimous decision and signalled the possibility of stepping up the easing pace in coming meetings.
- In the minutes, Goldman Sachs will be looking for discussion about the appropriate near-term monetary policy stance and any discussion around the conditions that would support an acceleration of the easing pace. They will also be looking for discussion about the implications for the near-term calibration of monetary policy of the committee’s downbeat outlook for activity, the expected FOMC Fed Funds path and US trade-policy uncertainty.
- Meanwhile, JP Morgan expects the minutes to elaborate on the reasons why the board remained unanimously super-cautious in their view, despite the real ex-ante policy rate sitting at 6%, well above the 1.8%-3.6% neutral range. With annual price revisions in focus, JPM believes the board will not necessarily endorse a 50bp cut in February and expect it to stick to 25bp in the current cycle, subject to potential surprises in the early-Jan CPI, and with all eyes on the start of the Trump administration.
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