EU HEALTHCARE: Bayer (BAYNGR: JrSub Ba1 neg/BB+/BB+) Equity up 5.5%
Jan-15 13:34
There haven't been many days where Bayer stages a 5+% rally.
- Perps are Unchanged in a market where XO is -7 tighter and 5yr OBL +35c
- Recent developments - marginal win in the PCB case in Washington insofar as the pay-out was only to 4 people, not all 15. $100m pay-out is manageable.
- The company ruled out any large M&A (did we think they would...?) at the JPM Health conference
- Xarelto lost exclusivity last April - but Nubeqa and Kerendia have been filling the gap in earnings.
- At the JPM conference, Bayer pointed to Pharma gains from 2027 onwards. BridgeBio is expected to produce $1bn+ sales.
- In women's health, elinzanetant should launch in July with $750m peak sales expected eventually.
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US: MNI POLITICAL RISK - McConnell Urges Trump To Bolster Military
Dec-16 13:31
- A raft of US President-elect Donald Trump’s Cabinet nominees are on Capitol Hill again today. Health Secretary nominee, Robert F. Kennedy Jr., will meet Republican Senators for the first time.
- Trump named Richard Grenell his ‘special missions’ envoy, tasked with directing policy on Venezuela and North Korea.
- Congressional leaders are still working out the details of a Continuing Resolution to extend government funding, cutting it close to the December 20 deadline.
- Senator Chuck Grassley (R-IA) said that health care could be targeted as the Trump administration looks to fund the extension of Trump’s first-term tax cuts.
- Trump’s Commerce Secretary nominee, Howard Lutnick, is bucking predictions that he would be less hawkish on trade than Trump's first-term USTR, Robert Lighthizer. Companies have stepped up a behind-the-scenes lobbying effort, suggesting that Trump's tariff threats are being taken as a credible risk to business.
- Trump's transition team is expected to recommend a global tariff on battery components to stimulate the domestic US battery supply chain.
- US officials confirmed that the Biden administration has established direct contact with the Syrian rebel group that ousted former president Bashar al-Assad.
- Outgoing Senate Republican leader Mitch McConnell (R-KY) has written a lengthy op-ed in Foreign Affairs magazine calling on Trump to “reverse the neglect of military strength.”
- Poll of the Day: Much of Trump's agenda gets a green light from voters, but Americans are sceptical of tariffs.
Full article: US Daily Brief
MNI: US NY FED EMPIRE STATE MFG INDEX 0.2 DEC
Dec-16 13:30
- MNI: US NY FED EMPIRE STATE MFG INDEX 0.2 DEC
- US NY FED EMPIRE MFG NEW ORDERS 6.1 DEC
- US NY FED EMPIRE MFG EMPLOYMENT INDEX -5.8 DEC
- US NY FED EMPIRE MFG PRICES PAID INDEX 21.1 DEC
UK: Chancellor Reeves to deliver Spring forecast 26 March
Dec-16 13:27
- Chancellor Reeves has asked the OBR an updated Economic and Fiscal Outlook (EFO) to be published on 26 March 2025.
- The forecast is normally published in March - but a little earlier in the month - and has historically been accompanied by tax changes or a full Budget.
- Labour has previously committed to only small changes being made outside of an annual Autumn Budget, so this year there may be fewer tweaks to fiscal policy than usual.
- Also, the DMO usually doesn't usually announce its funding plan for the upcoming fiscal year until this date, accompanying the EFO.
- The next investor / GEMM DMO consultations are due to be held on Monday 17 March (which is now a week and a half before the EFO is due to be published).
- It is quite possible that the DMO will therefore announce some tenders at the beginning of the 2025/26 fiscal year to give the market some time to digest the full calendar.
- It is also unclear if this means that the multi-year "Spending Review" that is due to conclude in the Spring will be announced on this day, or if that will be kept for a date later in the spring.
