FRANCE: BBG-Macron Floats Snap Election As Early As Autumn
Apr-22 14:11
Bloomberg reports that President Emmanuel Macron is considering calling a snap legislative election as soon as the autumn of this year, claiming "Macron has consulted figures in his inner circle in recent weeks regarding such a scenario, according to people familiar with the exchanges. The discussions are merely consultative and no decision has been made." The last legislative election took place in July 2024, and delivered a fractured National Assembly that has seen away two prime ministers (Gabriel Attal and Michel Barnier), with the incumbent (Francois Bayrou) existing in an uneasy political ceasefire with parties of the left and right.
- The article claims that Macron's inclination towards a snap vote could be down to a boost in his approval ratings (up 7% on the previous month and close to the levels achieved before last year's election).
- The decision may be taken out of Macron's hands, though. A legislative election cannot take place within one year of the previous vote. Given the Bayrou gov'ts lack of a majority in the Assembly, come the summer, the left-wing New Popular Front alliance and the far-right Rassemblement National (RN, National Rally) could unite to out the Bayrou gov't and force a snap election.
- The little polling conducted to date on a prospective legislative election shows RN remaining the single most popular political force in the first round, with the pro-Macron centrist Ensemble trailing in a distant third place.
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CANADA PM CARNEY TO MEET GOVERNOR GENERAL AT NOON
Mar-23 11:22
- CANADA PM CARNEY TO MEET GOVERNOR GENERAL AT NOON
- CARNEY EXPECTED TO SEEK ELECTION
US TSYS: Available "Extraordinary Measures" Pick Up Slightly From Lows
Mar-21 21:00
Treasury has $163B of "extraordinary measures" remaining for authorities to use to fend off hitting the debt limit as of March 19, per the latest release of Treasury data. That's up from $86B on Mar 17 and a low of $34B on Feb 24.
- That's a little under half of the $377B in measures available to Treasury, with most of the amount remaining ($143B) coming from the so-called "G Fund".
- This headroom is in addition to $416B in cash left in the TGA, at last count.
- We haven't seen any changes recently to "x-dates" by when Treasury will run out of cash until the debt limit is lifted.
- Consensus still centers around late July/early August, but much will depend on April's major mid-month tax take. Treasury wrote to Congress last week that they would be able to provide an update on the x-date in the first half of May, after the conclusion of tax season.
USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Outlook Remains Bullish
Mar-21 21:00
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4345 @ 16:27 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
USDCAD is trading closer to its recent lows. The bull cycle that started Feb 14 remains intact and moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Note that the latest pullback has exposed a near-term key support at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. Clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. The bull trigger is 1.4543, the Mar 4 high.
