CHILE: BCCh Traders Survey Expected, USDCLP At Three-Month Lows
- The BCCh’s traders survey will be released at 1130GMT(0630ET), with attention on market participants’ interest rate forecasts for the comings meetings. In the previous survey, rates were expected to stay on hold through March and April, although scope was still seen at that time for a further 25bp cut over a 12-month horizon.
- Since then, the central bank signalled an extended pause at its January MPC meeting and this week’s minutes to that meeting were more hawkish than expected, potentially opening the door to rate hikes later this year.
- Buoyed by the hawkish tilt from the central bank, the Chilean peso has outperformed this week, with the currency rallying almost 2% further against the dollar to its strongest level for three-months. Further copper price gains to their highest since last May have also provided a tailwind. USDCLP closed yesterday at 945.375, with sights on 940.35, the 61.8% retracement of the upleg between Sep 27 ‘24 - Jan 3.
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US INFLATION: December CPI Preview And Detailed Analyst Expectations
Re-upping our US CPI preview (PDF) ahead of the release in just over 2 hours (0830ET).
- A summary of analyst expectations is in the image below (as noted earlier, consensus doesn't appear to have changed after PPI).
EQUITIES: EU Bank large outright Put buyer
SX7E (21st Mar) 145p, bought for 2.5 in 24k vs 6.48k at 153.80.
IRELAND: Draft Programme For Gov't Coming Today As Coalition Agreement Reached
RTE reports that a new draft programme for gov't is set to be published later today following parliamentary meetings of Fianna Fáil (FF) and Fine Gael (FG) this afternoon. On 14 Jan RTE reported that an agreement on forming a new governing coalition had been reached involving FF, FG and a number of independent lawmakers (TDs). RTE: "Seven TDs from the Regional Independents are set to support the next government as part of an agreement with Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael. Meanwhile, Independent TDs Michael and Danny Healy-Rae have also reached an agreement to support the incoming government."
- The participation of nine independent TDs in total, added to FF's 48 seats and FG's 38 will give the gov't a comfortable majority with 95 seats in the 174-member Dáil Éireann (lower house).
- Party members from FF and FG are expected to approve the programme for gov't by 19 Jan. This will set the stage for the election of a Taoiseach (PM) once the Dáil reconvenes on Wednesday 22 January. FF leader Micheál Martin, as head of the largest party, will become Taoiseach first under the agreement. It is expected that he will hold the office until well into 2027.
- Under the 2020-24 agreement, FF and FG held the Taoiseach's office for an equal amount of time. However, FF's sizeable seat advantage over FG means Martin is expected to remain in office for over half the parliamentary term.
- RTE also reports that Eurogroup President Paschal Donohoe, who served as an FG finance minister from 2017-22, is set to return to the position under the new gov't.
Chart 1. Dáil Éireann, Seats
Source: oireachtas.ie, MNI
