USDCAD TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 1.4948 High Mar 2003
- RES 3: 1.4814 High Apr 2003
- RES 2: 1.4503/1.4793 High Fb 4 / 3 and key resistance
- RES 1: 1.4380 High Feb 10
- PRICE: 1.4159 @ 08:17 GMT Feb 14
- SUP 1: 1.4107 50.0% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
- SUP 2: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 3: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
- SUP 4: 1.3894 Low Nov 11 ‘24
USDCAD broke lower Thursday, breaking out of a tight trading range this week. The pair remains soft. A key support at 1.4261, the Jan 20 low, has been cleared and this signals scope for an extension of the current bear cycle - a correction. Scope is seen for a move towards 1.4107, a Fibonacci retracement. Initial firm resistance to watch is 1.4380, the Feb 10 high. A break would highlight an early bullish reversal signal.
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EUR: FX Exchange traded Weekly Option
FX Exchange Weekly traded Option, expiry Friday, covers the US CPI, IJC, Retail Sales and IP, and the rest of the European Final CPIs.
- EURUSD (expiry Friday) 1.0675c , bought for 0.00020 and 0.00025 in 2k.
Underlying is slightly higher than the spot at 1.0341.
STIR: Dovish Repricing Post UK CPI, 90bps of ECB Cuts Priced Through '25
Dovish repricing in EUR STIRs following the lower-than-expected UK CPI reading, with ECB-dated OIS now back to pricing 91bps of cuts through the course of this year (vs 87bps at yesterday’s close).
- Euribor futures remain within yesterday’s range, now +0.5 to +4.0 ticks through the blues versus yesterday’s settlement levels.
- Overnight, ECB Chief Economist Lane played down the short-term impact of exchange rate movements on imported inflation, but noted that the euro “plays a role” over time.
- French and Spanish final December HICP inflation confirmed flash estimates.
- ECB Vice President de Guindos is scheduled to speak at 0820GMT, with Villeroy and Vujcic expected around 0830GMT.
- Eurozone November industrial production is due at 1000GMT, though primary global focus will be on the US CPI report at 1330GMT.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jan-25 | 2.675 | -24.4 |
| Mar-25 | 2.445 | -47.4 |
| Apr-25 | 2.303 | -61.6 |
| Jun-25 | 2.165 | -75.4 |
| Jul-25 | 2.116 | -80.3 |
| Sep-25 | 2.050 | -86.9 |
| Oct-25 | 2.035 | -88.4 |
| Dec-25 | 2.013 | -90.6 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
MNI: SPAIN DEC HICP 0.4% M/M, 2.8% Y/Y
- MNI: SPAIN DEC HICP 0.4% M/M, 2.8% Y/Y
