USDCAD TECHS: Bear Cycle Extends

• RES 3: 147.74 - High Jan 15 and bull trigger (cont)
• RES 2: 146.53 - High Aug 6 
• RES 1: 142.73/144.48 - High Dec 9 / High Nov 11  
• PRICE: 140.92 @ 20:34 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: 140-00 - Round number support
• SUP 2: 139.38 - 2.764 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing
• SUP 3: 138.87- 3.000 proj of the Aug 6 - Sep 3 - 9 price swing    

A clear downtrend in JGB futures remains intact and the latest fresh cycle lows reinforce this condition. Note too that moving average studies on the continuation chart are in a bear-mode setup, highlighting a clear downtrend. The move down exposes the 140.00 psychological handle next. For bulls, a reversal would open 142.73 and 144.48, the Dec 9 and Nov 11 high respectively. For now,short-term gains are considered corrective. 

• RES 4: 165.43 High Nov 8 
• RES 3: 164.90 THigh Dec 30 and a key short-term resistance  
• RES 2: 164.55 High Jan 7
• RES 1: 163.19 High Jan 10 
• PRICE: 161.11 @ 20:46 GMT Jan 15 
• SUP 1: 160.04 Low Jan 13    
• SUP 2: 160.54 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle   
• SUP 3: 159.51 61.8% retracement of the Dec 3 - 30 bull cycle
• SUP 4: 158.67 Low Dec 11

The recent move down in EURJPY appears corrective. The recovery from Monday’s low highlights a potential short-term reversal and the end of the corrective cycle. A resumption of gains would open 164.90, the Dec 30 high. Clearance of this hurdle would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. On the downside, key short-term support has been defined at 160.04, the Jan 13 low. Clearance of this level would be a bearish development.

• RES 3: 96.501 - 76.4% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
• RES 2: 96.207 - 61.8% of the Mar 14 - Nov 1 ‘23 bear leg
• RES 1: 95.615/851 - High Dec 31 / High Dec 11 
• PRICE: 95.440 @ 20:29 GMT Jan 15
• SUP 1: 95.275 - Low Nov 14  (cont) and a key support 
• SUP 2: 95.224 - 1.000 proj of the Dec 11 - 23 - 31 price swing
• SUP 3: 94.495 - 1.0% 10-dma envelope

The Aussie 10-yr futures contract continues to trade below the Dec 11 high of 95.851, and has traded through the Dec low. A stronger bearish theme would expose 95.275, the Nov 14 low and a key support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. For bulls, a confirmed reversal and a breach of 95.851, the Dec 11 high, would instead reinstate a bull cycle and refocus attention on resistance at 96.207, a Fibonacci retracement point.