US TSYS: Bear Flatter In EGB Supply Spillover, Heavy Docket Ahead

• We have published and e-mailed to subscribers the MNI ECB Preview, including MNI analysis plus analyst views on what to expect at this month's meeting.
• Please find the full report here: https://media.marketnews.com/ECB_Preview_Jan2025_fa0c9e0123.pdf

• Treasuries are lower across the curve in an extension of yesterday’s paring of early gains seen on DeepSeek-inspired risk-off.
• The FT has reported Tsy Sec Bessent is pushing for new universal tariffs on US imports to start at 2.5% and rise gradually, according to four people familiar with the matter, whilst Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One he wants universal tariffs “much bigger” than 2.5%.
• Today sees focus on durable goods and the Conf. Board consumer survey before some attention on 7Y supply after yesterday’s dual 2Y and 5Y auctions. These are all of course ahead of Wednesday’s FOMC decision (MNI Fed Preview).
• Cash yields are 2-3bp higher, with 2s10s at 34.7bps (+0.8bp) within recent ranges.
• TYH5 has pulled back to 108-28+ (-08+) on solid cumulative volumes of 395k at typing, remaining firmly within yesterday’s range with its high of 109-12.
• Yesterday’s push higher stopped just short of resistance at 109-12+ (50-day EMA), with clearance required to strengthen a bullish theme working against a medium-term bearish trend condition. Support meanwhile is seen at 108-00 (Jan 16 low).
• Fed Funds implied rates meanwhile still see a next cut in June although it’s closer now with 27bp priced vs as much as 32bp yesterday, building to a cumulative 48bp of cuts for 2025.  
• Data: Durable goods Dec prelim (0830ET), FHFA and S&P CoreLogic house prices Nov (0900ET), Conf. Board consumer survey Jan (1000ET), Richmond Fed mfg Jan (1000ET), Dallas Fed services Jan (1030ET)
• Coupon issuance: US Tsy 44B 7Y note auction - 91282CMK4 (1300ET)
• Bill issuance: US Tsy $30B 2Y FRN, $85B 42D CMB auctions (1130ET)

SX5E (19th Dec) bought for 2.8 in 12k vs 1.32k at 160.50.