USDCAD TECHS: Bear Mode Condition Intact

• Headline CPI is expected to remain around 3.0% while both core and services CPI are all expected to tick down a tenth according to the previews we have read to 3.6% (with upside risks) and 4.9% respectively. Core goods and food / tobacco prices are expected to increase, however, with the latter keeping headline unchanged.
• We note that goods inflation, and not just services inflation is now important for the MPC - particularly if food and core goods prices continue to increase.
• There is also uncertainty over the survey date this month.
• The February 2025 release is a bit later in the month than usual (possibly due to the 2025B weights update).
• In our preview, we also look at the main takeaways from the 2025B weights publication.

Download Full MNI Preview Here

Belgium has announced a 10-year USD mandate while Germany and Italy are both still due to hold auctions this week. France held a linker syndication yesterday while the EU, the Netherlands and Germany have already held auctions. There is also the potential for Austrian, Italian and EFSF syndications in upcoming weeks. We look for estimated gross issuance for the week of E30.7bln, up from E30.2bln last week.

For the full document including more details on issuance this week and next week click here.

• Belgium has announced a mandate for today to syndication to launch a 10-year USD benchmark bond maturing on 2 April 2035. IOIs were being taken yesterday at the MS+67bp area.
• This morning, Italy will hold a BTP Short Term and BTPei auction. On offer will be E2.5-3.0bln of the on-the-run 2.55% Feb-27 BTP Short Term (ISIN: IT0005633794) alongside E1.0-1.5bln of the 1.50% May-29 BTPei (ISIN: IT0005543803).
• Also this morning, Germany will return to the market to hold a 15-year Bund auction. On offer will be E1.5bln of the 2.60% May-41 Bund (ISIN: DE000BU2F009) alongside E500mln of the 2.50% Aug-46 Bund (ISIN: DE0001102341).
• To conclude the week on Friday, Italy will hold a 5/10-year BTP auction and CCTeu auction. On offer will be E2.5-3.0bln of the on-the-run 5-yerar 2.95% Jul-30 BTP (ISIN: IT0005637399), E2.50-3.25bln of the on-the-run 10-year 3.65% Aug-35 BTP (ISIN: IT0005631590) alongside E1.00-1.25bln of the 1.05% Apr-32 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005594467) and E1.0-1.5bln of the 1.10% Apr-33 CCTeu (ISIN: IT0005620460).

Greece and Italy are both still due to sell bills this week, while Germany, France and Austria have already come to the market this week. We expect issuance to be E21.4bln in first round operations, up from E19.4bln last week.

• Today, Greece will issue E500mln of the new 26-week Sep 26, 2025 GTB.
• Tomorrow, Italy will come to the market to sell E7bln of the new 6-month Sep 30, 2025 BOT.