USDJPY TECHS: Bearish Theme Remains In Play

Feb-26 19:30
  • RES 4: 154.80 High Dec 12 ‘24 and a key resistance     
  • RES 3: 153.37 50-day EMA 
  • RES 2: 152.03 20-day EMA 
  • RES 1: 150.74 High Feb 21         
  • PRICE: 149.36 @ 16:20 GMT Feb 26
  • SUP 1: 148.57 Low Feb 25
  • SUP 2: 148.20 2.0% 10-dma envelope
  • SUP 3: 148.01 Low Oct 9 ‘24
  • SUP 4: 146.95 61.8% retracement of the Sep 16 ‘24 - Jan 10 bull leg  

While prices have stabilised, bearish conditions in USDJPY remain in place and the pair is trading at its recent lows. A push lower on Tuesday resulted in a print below key support at 148.65, the Dec 3 ‘24 low, to strengthen the bearish condition. A clear break of this level would pave the way for an extension towards 146.95, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 152.03, the 20-day EMA.  

Historical bullets

FED: Jan 2025 FOMC Analyst Views: QT Seen Ending Mid-Year (2/2)

Jan-27 19:21

All analysts expect the FOMC to hold rates steady at the January meeting.

  • Statement: Changes are seen being limited largely to the first paragraph describing current economic conditions. Most focus is on the labor market language, which – for those analysts who expect statement tweaks – could shift slightly to reflect some stabilization in conditions in recent months, vs previous easing.
  • Forward guidance is expected to be unchanged.
  • QT: The Fed is seen ending quantitative tightening (more specifically, for Treasuries, with MBS continuing to run off), at some point between March and September 2025 – consensus is for a mid-year (ie June) end.

FED: Jan 2024 FOMC Analyst Views: Wide Range Of Cutting Calls (1/2)

Jan-27 19:19

Analysts enter the first FOMC meeting of 2025 expecting anywhere from zero rate cuts to 125bp worth of reductions by year-end, with March the first plausibly “live” meeting.

  • The central expectation is for 50bp of reductions in 2025, with analysts either looking for front-loaded (March, June) or back-loaded (September, December) reductions.
  • Some see more easing in 2026 than in 2025 (Barclays, Deutsche Nomura).
  • None expect the FOMC to hike.
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FED: MNI Fed Preview - Jan 2025: Analyst Outlook

Jan-27 18:58

Note to readers: This update of our Jan 24 preview includes analyst expectations for the January FOMC meeting and beyond (Starting Page 20)

FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK:

FedPrevJan2025 - With Analysts.pdf