USDCAD TECHS: Bears Are In The Driver’s Seat
Apr-03 20:00
- RES 4: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- RES 3: 1.4415 High Apr 1
- RES 2: 1.4316 50-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.4151 Low Feb 14 and a recent breakout level
- PRICE: 1.4061 @ 16:42 BST Apr 3
- SUP 1: 1.4028 Low Apr 3
- SUP 2: 1.3986 Low Dec 2 ‘24
- SUP 3: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 4: 1.3894 Low Nov 11 ‘24
USDCAD traded sharply lower Thursday. The move down has confirmed a clear reversal of the bull cycle between Sep 25 ‘24 and Feb 3. Price is through a key support at 1.4151, the Feb 14 low. This signals scope for an extension towards 1.3944, a Fibonacci retracement. On the upside, key short-term resistance is seen at 1.4316, the 50-day EMA. Initial resistance is the 1.4151 level (Feb 14 low).
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US TSY OPTIONS: BLOCK: Repeat May'25/Midcurve 10Y Call Spread
Mar-04 19:49
- -16,000 TYK5 112.5 calls, 41 (47 earlier) vs. 111-09/0.20% vs. +17,500 wk4 TY 114 calls, 8 (9 earlier)
COMMODITIES: WTI Edges Lower, Henry Hub At 26-Month High, Gold Extends Gains
Mar-04 19:43
- Crude markets extended their decline earlier today, before paring most of the losses later in the session. Downside pressure came from confirmation that OPEC plans to return barrels to the market, coupled with the disruption to trade and potential hit to global economic growth from Trump’s tariff policy.
- WTI Apr 25 is down by 0.1% at $68.3/bbl.
- OPEC has signalled that it will proceed with its planned output hike of 138k b/d in April amid healthy market fundamentals and positive market outlook.
- The current bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact and this week’s fresh short-term cycle low reinforces current conditions.
- Support at $67.75, the Dec 20 ‘24 low, was pierced earlier today, with next support seen at $66.41, the Dec 6 ‘24 low.
- Meanwhile, Henry Hub climbed to its highest close since Dec 2022, driven by near record LNG feedgas flows, forecasts of higher demand next week, and concerns that flows from Canada could be disrupted by the looming trade war.
- US Natgas Apr 25 rose by 5.3% to $4.34/mmbtu.
- Spot gold is up by 0.7% to $2,914/oz, aided by broad dollar weakness as stagflationary concerns in the US gain traction.
- Next immediate resistance in gold comes at $2,920, which has been pierced. Above here, a stronger rally would refocus attention on the next objective at $2,962.2, a Fibonacci projection.
US STOCKS: Late Equities Roundup: Chip Stocks Spur late Bounce, Nasdaq Leads
Mar-04 19:39
- Stocks are mixed in later trade, S&P Eminis managing to claw their way off January lows, while the Nasdaq is in the green led by semiconductor stocks. Little has changed regarding underlying risk sentiment, however, global markets still concerned over the impact of 25% US import tariffs against Canada & Mexico, 20% on China, not to mention agriculture products starting April 2.
- Currently, the DJIA trades down 314.99 points (-0.73%) at 42874.67, S&P E-Minis down 20.25 points (-0.35%) at 5840.0 (vs. 5744.00 low), Nasdaq up 101.8 points (0.6%) at 18450.86.
- Information Technology and Communication Services sectors led gainers in the second half, semiconductor makers buoyed the Tech sector: Super Micro Computer +10.20%, Enphase Energy +8.61%, First Solar +4.14% and NVIDIA +3.00%.
- Interactive media and entertainment shares buoyed the Communication Services sector with Match Group +3.38%, Warner Bros Discovery +2.90% and Alphabet +2.89%.
- Financial and Consumer Staples sectors lead the decline in late trade: banks and services led laggers in the former with Citigroup -5.07%, Ameriprise Financial -5.01%, Discover Financial Services- 4.95%, Capital One Financial Corp-4.87% and Bank of America -4.72%.
- Meanwhile, Target -3.10%, Coca-Cola -2.56%, Estee Lauder Cos -2.54% and Philip Morris International -2.46% weighed on the Consumer Staples sector.
- Earnings expected after the close include: Crowdstrike Holdings, Ross Stores, Foot Locker, Campbell's, Abercrombie & Fitch, Brown-Forman Corp, Marvell Technology and Victoria's Secret.
