FED: Beige Book: Price Pressures Tick Higher, Passthrough In Question

• RES 4: 0.8530 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg         
• RES 3: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24 
• RES 2: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
• RES 1: 0.8428/8450 High Mar 18 / 11 and the bull trigger     
• PRICE: 0.8364 @ 16:52 GMT Mar 24 
• SUP 1: 0.8351/46 50-day EMA and pivot support / Low Mar 24
• SUP 2: 0.8321 61.8% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 0.8391 76.4% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg 
• SUP 4: 0.8241 Low Mar 3 and a key support 

EURGBP remains in a retracement mode. The cross has recently breached 0.8369, the Mar 14 low, and attention is on the 50-day EMA, at 0.8351. The average marks a key short-term pivot level. It has been pierced, a clear break would undermine the recent bull theme and signal scope for a deeper pullback, towards 0.8321, a Fibonacci retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger is 0.8450, the Mar 11 high. 

From our Europe Pi update earlier (PDF): 

• German contracts are now all "short". Schatz, Bobl, and Buxl each carry that distinction, while Bund has become the biggest structural short in MNI Pi (at very short).
• Each contract saw trade indicative of short covering last week, with the exception of long-setting in Bobl.

Bloomberg has published a useful tracker identifying every tariff imposed or threatened by US President Donald Trump and its economic effect. 

• Bloomberg reports: “While the unpredictability and risk of weaker economic growth have roiled financial markets, Trump has signaled plans to press ahead with more aggressive [tariff] moves..."
• Trump and White House officials have suggested that Trump’s April 2 ‘Liberation Day’ tariffs could be more targetted than previously signalled although with a week until the April 1st bilateral trade review is due, it is unlikely that any final decision has yet been taken.
• Trump said in White House remarks on Friday that, despite press reports, he hasn’t changed his mind on tariffs: “I don't change. But the word flexibility is an important word. Sometimes there's flexibility. So, there'll be flexibility.”
• The Wall Street Journal reports that tariffs on “industrial sectors like cars and microchips are no longer expected to be announced on that date [April 2], though major trading partners will still be hit with so-called reciprocal tariffs… The administration is now focusing on applying tariffs to about 15% of nations with persistent trade imbalances with the US..."

Figure 1: Tariffs Imposed, Threatened, or Suspended, (Affected Trade) 

Source: Bloomberg