US: Bessent: Extending Trump Tax Cuts Most Important Economic Issue Of The Day

Jan-16 16:29

US President-elect Donald Trump's nominee to serve as Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, is delivering testimony to the Senate Finance Committee. Some key remarks below. LIVESTREAM

  • Asked about the importance of extending Trump's first-term tax cuts, Bessent says: "This is the single most important economic issue of the day. This is pass/fail... If we do not renew and extend, then we will be facing an economic calamity and as always, with financial instability, that falls on the middle and working-class people. We will see a gigantic middle-class tax increase... It has the potential for a 'sudden stop'... We saw the power of these tax cuts... before they were interrupted by COVID..."
  • Asked by ranking Democrat Ron Wyden (D-OR) about who will pay for 'across the board tariffs,' Bessent says he "respectfully disagrees" that Americans will cover the cost of tariffs. He says "optimal tariff theory does not support what you're saying," noting that "elasticities", currency modulations, and shifting manufacturing strategy from countries subject to tariffs will moderate the cost of tariffs.
  • Asked about plans to roll back climate laws enacted by the Biden administration, Bessent says that IRA spending is "wildly out of control" and that it will do little to help the US win an "energy race" with China. Bessent notes he supports new nuclear energy projects to better compete with China. 

 

Historical bullets

FED: US TSY 42D AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $241 MLN FROM $65.000 BLN TOTAL

Dec-17 16:15
  • US TSY 42D AUCTION: NON-COMP BIDS $241 MLN FROM $65.000 BLN TOTAL

GILTS: OPTIONS: Big G5 Call Spread

Dec-17 16:04

G G5 97.50/98.50 call spread, paper pays 4.0 to 5.0 on 10.65k

US DATA: Homebuilder Survey Points To Consolidating Housing Activity

Dec-17 15:53

December's National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) Housing Market Index printed 46 for a second consecutive month, continuing to point to a subdued outlook for single-family homebuilding activity versus post-pandemic highs.

  • Current sales conditions were steady at 48, with prospective buyer traffic down 1 point to 31 - but 6-month sales expectations rose 3 points to a post-April 2022 high of 66.
  • The NAHB noted "high home prices and mortgage rates offset renewed hope about a better regulatory business climate in 2025".
  • The headline index is a good leading indicator of overall (single as well as multi-family) building permits over the following 1.5 years, which in turn leads actual housing construction - and recent readings suggest permit activity closer to 1.2M annualized than the 1.7M+ seen in 2021.
  • As such while activity looks like it will indeed be softer over 2025-26 than at peak, it is consolidating as opposed to deteriorating rapidly (as witnessed in the housing-driven GFC).