OIL: BFOET Loadings to Recover to 565kb/d in March
Jan-30 13:15
The North Sea combined BFOET loadings in March are scheduled to recover to 565kbpd from the lowest since September at 550kbpd in February, according to loading programs.
- The five main grades of Brent, Forties, Oseberg, Ekofisk and Troll will load a total of 25 cargoes in March, compared with 22 cargoes in February.
- Brent: 1 cargo in March vs 1 in February; 23kbpd down from 25kbpd
- Forties: 8 cargoes vs 7; 181kbpd up from 175kbpd
- Oseberg: 3 cargoes vs 2; 68kbpd up from 50kbpd
- Ekofisk: 9 cargoes vs 9; 203kbpd down from 225kbpd
- Troll: 4 cargoes vs 3; 90kbpd up from 75kbpd
Johan Sverdrup loadings will remain unchanged on the month at 716kb/d on 22 cargoes in March.
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STIR: Repo Reference Rates
Dec-31 13:03
- Secured Overnight Financing Rate (SOFR): 4.37% (-0.09), volume: $2.290T
- Broad General Collateral Rate (BGCR): 4.35% (-0.10), volume: $844B
- Tri-Party General Collateral Rate (TGCR): 4.35% (-0.10), volume: $798B
- (rate, volume levels reflect prior session)
US: Republicans Outnumber Democrats For First Time In Decades
Dec-31 12:47
New analysis of survey data from Gallup shows that there are now more Republican and Republican-leaning voters in the electorate than Democrats, for the first time in decades.
- Patrick Ruffini at Echelon Insights notes: “Historically, this is practically unheard of. Democrats have held a longstanding advantage in party identification that dates back to the New Deal, with Republicans drawing even on only a couple of occasions — the 1994 Republican Revolution and the immediate post-9/11 period.”
- Ruffini continues: “We are now entering a period where the roughly even party ID split reflects the highly competitive nature of national elections. All things being equal we should expect a 50-50 political environment to yield tied party ID, rather than a 3- or 4-point Democratic ID edge. Good Democratic years will mean more Democratic identifiers in the electorate, and good Republican years will mean more Republican identifiers.”
Figure 1: US Adult Party Identification and Leaning in Presidential Election Years
Source: Gallup
STIR: Large Sep'25/Dec'25 SOFR Skew Spread Package
Dec-31 12:45
Checking direction on skew package:
- 24,000 SFRU5 96.50/97.50 call spds ref 96.035 vs.
- 12,000 SFRZ5 95.50 puts ref 96.07
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