STIR: BLOCK: Dec'25 SOFR Ratio Put Spread
Apr-24 14:09
* 5,000 SFRZ5 95.68/96.00 2x1 put spds, 3.0 ref 96.51 at 1006:04ET...
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US TSYS: Post New Home Sales, Richmond Fed Mfg Index React
Mar-25 14:05
- Tsy futures are extending gains after Conf. Board Consumer Confidence comes out lower than expected, New Home Sales dipped but up-revision of prior more than made up for the move.
- Tsy Jun'25 10Y futures trade 110-21 (+3.5) vs. 110-21.5 high, initial technical resistance well above at 111-17.5/25 (High Mar 20 / 11).
- Curves still steeper but off earlier highs: 2s10s +.566 at 30.146 (31.698 high), 5s30s +2.041 at 58.656 (58.949 high).
MNI: US FEB NEW HOME SALES +1.8% TO 0.676M SAAR
Mar-25 14:00
- MNI: US FEB NEW HOME SALES +1.8% TO 0.676M SAAR
- US JAN NEW HOME SALES REVISED TO 0.664M SAAR
EQUITY TECHS: E-MINI S&P: (M5) Holding On To Its Recent Gains
Mar-25 13:58
- RES 4: 5970.87 61.8% retracement of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 bear leg
- RES 3: 5924.59 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 5864.25 Low Jan 13 and a recent breakout level
- RES 1: 5834.00 Intraday high
- PRICE: 5819.25 @ 13:48 GMT Mar 25
- SUP 1: 5650.75/5559.75 Low Mar 18 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 5483.50 2.00 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 3: 5396.00 2.236 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
- SUP 4: 5341.87 2.382 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
The trend condition in S&P E-Minis is bearish and the latest recovery appears corrective. MA studies are unchanged - they remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. However, this week’s gains have resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA, at 5803.08. This signals scope for a continuation higher near-term - towards 5864.25, the Jan 13 low. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 5559.75, the Mar 13 low and bear trigger.
