US TSY OPTIONS: BLOCK: Large Jun'25 10Y Put Buy

• RES 4: 0.8378 High Feb 6 and a reversal trigger     
• RES 3: 0.8361 50.0% retracement of the Jan 20 - Feb 3 bear leg  
• RES 2: 0.8325 50-day EMA  
• RES 1: 0.8306 High Feb 26 and a key short-term resistance    
• PRICE: 0.8281 @ 16:28 GMT Mar 4 
• SUP 1: 0.8241 Low Mar 3   
• SUP 2: 0.8223 Low Dec 19 and a key support  
• SUP 3: 0.8203 Low Mar 7 ‘22 and a lowest point of a multi-year range   
• SUP 4: 0.8163 123.6% retracement of the Dec 19 - Jan 20 bull leg 

EURGBP traded higher into the Tuesday close. A bearish condition remains intact following last week’s move lower. The cross has pierced a key support at 0.8248, the Feb 3 low. A clear breach of this level would strengthen the bearish condition and pave the way for 0.8223 , the Dec 19 low and the next key support. To the upside, initial firm resistance has been defined at 0.8306, the Feb 26 high. Clearance of this hurdle would suggest a possible base and a reversal.       

• Market chatter in credit space is that Mars Inc, a family-owned, global leader in pet care, snacking and food, is looking to issue as much as $30B over as many as 8 tranches in the near term (possibly tomorrow after a conf call with investors today)
• The "jumbo" issuance is expected to help finance it's purchase of Kellanova, also a snacking/food related company for "$83.50 per share in cash, for a total consideration of $35.9B" back in August 2024.
• Estimates vary from $25B to $30B which would put it comfortably in the top ten largest corporate debt issuance on record.

• Bund futures have slid in late trading on Merz-Klingbeil comments around submitting a proposal to change the debt brake in Germany next week and setting up to a EUR 500bn special defense fund.
• RXH5 extended the initial slide to have hit fresh lows of 130.93 (latest 131.07).
• It’s easily through 131.79 (Mar 3 low) and also a bear trigger at 131.26 (Feb 19 low), testing the key short-term support at 131.00 (Jan 24 low). After that lies 130.28 (Jan 15 low).
• Bloomberg writes that “Germany will set up a €500 billion ($528 billion) fund as part of a sweeping policy overhaul to tackle urgently needed investments in defense and infrastructure, according to chancellor-in-waiting Friedrich Merz. Merz, speaking to reporters in Berlin Tuesday, also said that spending over 1% of GDP will be exempted from the country’s debt brake.”
• Handelsblatt writes on it more specifically being E500bn for infrastructure spending over a period of 10 years.
• Whilst the magnitude of the infrastructure fund looks in keeping with Reuters reports over the weekend (E400-500bn) and it seems to have no specific mention of a separate defense fund (which Reuters sources had seen at E400bn), - which could argue for some paring of the sharp move – the bearish reaction is likely being sustained by Merz saying "I want to make it very clear: In view of the threats to our freedom and peace on our continent, our defense must now also be based on 'whatever it takes,'" (per a translation from Handelsblatt coverage).