FED FUNDS FUTURES: BLOCK: May'25 Sale

• RES 4: 0.6441 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 - Jan 13 downleg  
• RES 3: 0.6429 High Dec 12               
• RES 2: 0.6384 High Dec 13  
• RES 1: 0.6325/6331 50-day EMA / High Jan 24
• PRICE: 0.6248 @ 16:38 GMT Jan 28 
• SUP 1: 0.6209 Low Jan 21     
• SUP 3: 0.6165/31 Low Jan 17 / 13 and the bear trigger
• SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
• SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing

A medium-term bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and recent gains have stalled at resistance around the 50-day EMA, at 0.6325. The reversal lower suggests the possible end of the correction between Jan 13 - 24. A continuation lower would open 0.6131, the Jan 13 low and the bear trigger. On the upside, a clear breach of the 50-day average is required to signal scope for a stronger recovery.  

• The BoC is heavily expected to cut its overnight rate target 25bps to 3.00% on Wednesday.
• There's a wide range of terminal rate forecasts for the BoC amongst analysts, from 1.75% to 3.00%.
• The median in the table below sits at 2.5%, firmed up a little further with the addition of Rabobank received since we published our BoC Preview, but there are multiple calls for a terminal at or below the bottom of the BoC's neutral range of 2.25-3.25%.
• Market pricing currently has around 2.6% for a terminal having fallen about 30bps since mid-January.
• See the MNI BoC Preview here. 

• Treasury look to finish weaker, unwinding a portion of Monday's risk-off rally tied to China's AI startup DeepSeek. Broader markets also likely recovered as accounts squared positions/covered risk ahead of Wednesday's FOMC policy announcement.
• Treasuries pared losses slightly after lower than expected Durable Goods Orders and down-revision to prior, while Capital Goods were higher than expected. December's advance durable goods report was solid overall, despite a large miss in the headline orders figure (-2.2% M/M vs +0.6% expected, prior rev -2.0% from -1.2%).
• The Conference Board consumer survey saw confidence disappoint in January at 104.1 (cons 105.9) after an upward revised 109.5 (initial 104.7) for its lowest since September. Declines were seen in both main categories, also to their lowest since September, but were most pronounced for the present situation.
• Currently, the Mar'25 10Y contract trades -3 at 109-02, off late overnight low of 108-25.5. Futures remain inside technical ranges: support well below at 108-00/107-06 (Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger), nearly breached yesterday - resistance above at 109-12+ (50-day EMA).
• Stocks also rebounded, semiconductors outperforming software & hardware makers as markets had more time to contemplate the new competition for US AI developers. Currently, the DJIA trades up 123.63 points (0.28%) at 44836.52, S&P E-Minis up 54.5 points (0.9%) at 6101.5, Nasdaq up 409.7 points (2.1%) at 19753.18.
• Cross-asset moves: Overall, G10 FX markets traded in a more stable manner following Monday's sharp volatility, Bloomberg US$ index gained 3.52 at 1300.32. Gold +22.34 at 2763.15; WTI crude (+.71 at 73.88) likely supported by comments from the White House Press Secretary that the Feb 1 deadline for applying tariffs on Mexico and Canada still stands.