OAT: Block trade

• In the FI space, the trend cycle in Bund futures remains bearish and last Friday’s sell-off reinforces this theme. The contract has recently traded through 133.22, 76.4% of the Nov 6 - Dec 2 bull cycle. This has opened key support at 132.00, the Nov 6 low. Initial resistance is seen at 133.48, Friday’s high.
• The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and short-term gains are considered corrective - for now. The recent breach of 91.87, the Dec 19 low, confirmed a resumption of the downtrend. Sights are on 91.58 next, a 4.382 projection of the Dec 3 - 4 - 5 minor price swing. Initial resistance is at 92.08, the Jan 2 high. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, is at 93.16, and the average is seen as an important hurdle for bulls.

• RES 4: 1.0825 High Nov 7 
• RES 3: 1.0630 High Dec 06
• RES 2: 1.0543 50-day EMA 
• RES 1: 1.0458 High Dec 30 
• PRICE: 1.0425 @ 11:40 GMT Jan 6
• SUP 1: 1.0226 Low Jan 2
• SUP 2: 1.0201 61.8% of the Sep ‘22 - Jul ‘23 bull leg 
• SUP 3: 1.0198 3.0% Lower Bollinger Band 
• SUP 4: 1.0167 2.0% 10-dma envelope  

The trend condition in EURUSD remains bearish and today’s strong gains are - for now - considered corrective. Last Thursday’s sharp sell-off reinforces current conditions and note too that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. The 20-day EMA, at 1.0414, has been pierced. The next resistance to watch is 1.0458, the Dec 30 high. The bear trigger has been defined at 1.0226, the Jan 2 low.

OI data points to net short setting across the curve on Friday, as data flow and setup for a heavy week of $IG & Tsy supply weighed on markets.

• The largest net DV01 equivalent positioning swings came in the 7- to 10-Year zone of the futures curve (TY & UXY).