BTP: Block trade

Megan Greene's speech at the Institute of Directors will be published here at 15:00GMT.

• With Mann having switched sides, it is thought that either Greene or Pill remain as the most hawkish member of the MPC. Both have voted for cuts in both November and February and Greene’s speech today will be watched for any evolution of her views.
• Without a notable change in stance at present it seems unlikely her vote is likely to be the one to bring about a potential sequential cut, so if she maintains a hawkish tone it’s unlikely to impact market pricing too much.

RES 4: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance    

• RES 3: 6162.25 High Jan 24 
• RES 2: 6147.75 High Jan 31 
• RES 1: 6123.25 High Feb 7                  
• PRICE: 6039.75 @ 14:41 GMT Feb 12 
• SUP 1: 6014.00/5935.50 Low Feb 10 / 3           
• SUP 2: 5892.37 76.4% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg
• SUP 3: 5842.50 Low Jan 14 
• SUP 4: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a key resistance 

Price action on Feb 3 in the S&P E-Minis contract continues to highlight a possible short-term reversal threat. If correct, it suggests that the latest bounce is a correction. A resumption of weakness would open 5892.37, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the upside, a stronger rally would expose key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 ‘24 high. Clearance of this hurdle would resume the primary uptrend. 

• Reoffer: 98.74 to yield 3.819%
• Size: E8bln (MNI expected a E8-10bln size)
• Spread earlier set at 3.25% May-55 OAT + 4bp (guidance: was 7bps area then revised to +5bps +/-1 WPIR)
• Benchmark spot ref: 90.55 mid / 3.779%
• Books above E115bln (including E2.84bln JLM interest)
• Maturity: 25 May 2056
• Settlement: 19 February 2025 (T+5)
• ISIN: FR001400XJJ3
• Coupon: 3.75% Fixed, annual ACT/ACT, payable each 25 May. Full first coupon on 25 May 2025
• Bookrunners: BNPP (DM and B&D) / Citi / DB / JPM / SG
• Timing: TOE 14:36GMT / 15:36CET. FTT immediately.