ECB: Bloomberg Sources Highlight Tension Between Hawks and Doves Ahead of April
Mar-06 17:26
Bloomberg are next to send out their post-ECB meeting sources piece. At first glance, the piece scre...
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
BOE: MNI BoE Preview - February 2025: Agents Pay Survey in Focus
Feb-04 17:26
• It would be a huge surprise to the market if this week’s MPC meeting delivered anything other than a 25bp cut to bring Bank Rate to 4.50%.
• The bar is also high for forward guidance to be meaningfully tweaked. We would be surprised if the vote split wasn’t 8-1 (also the base case for 18/22 sellside previews we read), although there are risks around the vote, particularly from the Agents’ Pay Survey.
• The Agents'; Pay Survey is the single measure with the most potential to cause surprises overall, both this week (to MPR projections, the vote split etc) and to future policy.
• We look at how data has evolved, expectations for the MPR projections as well as summarising over 20 sellside views.
FOR THE FULL PUBLICATION PLEASE USE THE FOLLOWING LINK: MNI BoE Preview - Feb25.pdf
GLOBAL: Trump and Xi Not Expected to Speak Today: WSJ Cite US Official
Feb-04 17:22
- "*TRUMP AND XI ARE NOT SPEAKING TODAY, OFFICIAL SAYS : WSJ" (BBG)
- From the note: "President Trump and his Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping will not be speaking on the phone today, a U.S. official said, despite an earlier claim by trade adviser Peter Navarro that they would hold a conversation."
GLOBAL: Economic Data Calendar 4/2/2025
Feb-04 17:18
| Date | GMT/Local | Period | Country | Release | Prior | Consensus | |
| 05/02/2025 | 0030/0930 | Jan | JP | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
| 05/02/2025 | 0030/0930 | Jan | JP | S&P Global Final Japan Composite PMI | -- | -- | |
| 05/02/2025 | 0145/0945 | Jan | CN | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
| 05/02/2025 | 0145/0945 | Jan | CN | S&P Global Final China Composite PMI | -- | -- | |
| 05/02/2025 | 0745/0845 | Dec | FR | Industrial Production m/m | 0.2 | 0.2 | % |
| 05/02/2025 | 0745/0845 | Dec | FR | Industrial Production y/y | -1.1 | -- | % |
| 05/02/2025 | 0745/0845 | Dec | FR | Manufacturing Prod m/m | 0.2 | -- | % |
| 05/02/2025 | 0745/0845 | Dec | FR | Manufacturing Prod y/y | -1.5 | -- | % |
| 05/02/2025 | 0815/0915 | Jan | ES | S&P Global Services PMI | -- | -- | |
| 05/02/2025 | 0815/0915 | Jan | ES | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | -- | -- | |
| 05/02/2025 | 0845/0945 | Jan | IT | S&P Global Services PMI | -- | -- | |
| 05/02/2025 | 0845/0945 | Jan | IT | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | -- | -- | |
| 05/02/2025 | 0850/0950 | Jan | FR | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
| 05/02/2025 | 0850/0950 | Jan | FR | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | -- | -- | |
| 05/02/2025 | 0855/0955 | Jan | DE | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
| 05/02/2025 | 0855/0955 | Jan | DE | S&P Global Composite PMI (final) | -- | -- | |
| 05/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | Dec | IT | Retail Sales m/m | -- | -- | % |
| 05/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | Dec | IT | Retail Sales y/y nsa | -- | -- | % |
| 05/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | Jan | EU | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
| 05/02/2025 | 0900/1000 | Jan | EU | S&P Global Composite PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
| 05/02/2025 | 0930/0930 | Jan | UK | S&P Global Services PMI (f) | -- | -- | |
| 05/02/2025 | 0930/0930 | Jan | UK | S&P / CIPS UK Final Comp PMI | -- | -- | |
| 05/02/2025 | 1000/1100 | Dec | EU | PPI m/m | 1.6 | -- | % |
| 05/02/2025 | 1000/1100 | Dec | EU | PPI y/y | -1.2 | -- | % |
| 05/02/2025 | 1200/0700 | 31-Jan | US | MBA Mortgage Applications w/w | -2 | -- | % |
| 05/02/2025 | 1315/0815 | Jan | US | ADP Private Payrolls | 122 | 153 | (k) |
| 05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Dec | CA | Prev Trade Balance, Rev | -- | -- | CAD (b) |
| 05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Dec | CA | Trade Balance | -0.32 | 0.38 | CAD (b) |
| 05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Dec | CA | Prev Trade Balance, Rev | -- | -- | CAD (b) |
| 05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Dec | CA | Trade Balance | -0.32 | 0.38 | CAD (b) |
| 05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Dec | US | Previous Trade Deficit Revised | -- | -- | USD (b) |
| 05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Dec | US | Trade Balance | -78.2 | -83.9 | USD (b) |
| 05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Q1 | US | Ave Month 10Y for Upcoming Qtr | -- | -- | USD (b) |
| 05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Q1 | US | Ave Month 20Y for Upcoming Qtr | -- | -- | USD (b) |
| 05/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Q1 | US | Ave Month 30Y for Upcoming Qtr | -- | -- | USD (b) |
| 05/02/2025 | 1445/0945 | Jan | US | S&P Global Services Index (f) | 52.8 | -- | |
| 05/02/2025 | 1445/0945 | Jan | US | S&P Global US Final Comp PMI | 55.4 | -- | |
| 05/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | Jan | US | ISM Services Employment Index | 51.4 | -- | |
| 05/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | Jan | US | ISM Services Index | 54.1 | 54.4 | |
| 05/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | Jan | US | ISM Services New Orders | 54.2 | -- | |
| 05/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | Jan | US | ISM Services Prices Index | 64.4 | -- | |
| 05/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | Q4 | US | housing vacancies rate | 1 | -- | % |
| 05/02/2025 | 1530/1030 | 31-Jan | US | Crude Oil Stocks ex. SPR w/w | -- | -- | bbl (m) |
| 05/02/2025 | 1530/1030 | 31-Jan | US | Distillate Stocks w/w change | -- | -- | bbl (m) |
| 05/02/2025 | 1530/1030 | 31-Jan | US | Gasoline Stocks w/w change | -- | -- | bbl (m) |
| 06/02/2025 | 0030/1130 | Dec | AU | Trade Balance | -- | -- | AUD (m) |
| 06/02/2025 | 0645/0745 | Jan | CH | Unemployment Rate | 2.6 | 2.6 | % |
| 06/02/2025 | 0645/0745 | Jan | CH | Unemployment m/m | 7.6 | -- | % |
| 06/02/2025 | 0645/0745 | Jan | CH | Unemployment y/y | 21.9 | -- | % |
| 06/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | Dec | DE | Manufacturing Orders m/m | -5.4 | 2.5 | % |
| 06/02/2025 | 0830/0930 | Jan | EU | S&P Global Construction PMI | -- | -- | |
| 06/02/2025 | 0930/0930 | Jan | UK | S&P Global Construction PMI | -- | -- | |
| 06/02/2025 | 1000/1100 | Dec | EU | Retail Sales m/m | 0.1 | -- | % |
| 06/02/2025 | 1000/1100 | Dec | EU | Retail Sales y/y wda | 1.2 | -- | % |
| 06/02/2025 | 1200/1200 | UK | Bank of England Bank Rate | 4.75 | -- | % | |
| 06/02/2025 | 1200/1200 | UK | Bank of England Bank Rate | 4.75 | -- | % | |
| 06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | 01-Feb | US | Continuing Claims | 1858 | -- | (k) |
| 06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | 01-Feb | US | Initial Jobless Claims | 207 | 215 | (k) |
| 06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | 01-Feb | US | Prev Continuing Claims, Rev | -- | -- | (k) |
| 06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | 01-Feb | US | Prev Initial Jobless Claims, Rev | -- | -- | (k) |
| 06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | 30-Jan | US | Corn Net Sales | -- | -- | MT (k) |
| 06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | 30-Jan | US | Corn Weekly Exports | -- | -- | MT (k) |
| 06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | 30-Jan | US | Soy Net Sales | -- | -- | MT (k) |
| 06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | 30-Jan | US | Soy Weekly Exports | -- | -- | MT (k) |
| 06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | 30-Jan | US | Wheat Net Sales | -- | -- | MT (k) |
| 06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | 30-Jan | US | Wheat Weekly Exports | -- | -- | MT (k) |
| 06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Q4 | US | Non-Farm Productivity (p) | 2.2 | 1.8 | % |
| 06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Q4 | US | Previous Non-Farm Productivity Revised | -- | -- | % |
| 06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Q4 | US | Previous Non-Farm Productivity Unit Labor Revised | -- | -- | % |
| 06/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Q4 | US | Unit Labor Costs (p) | 0.8 | 3.5 | % |
| 06/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | Jan | CA | Ivey PMI (SA) | 54.7 | -- | |
| 06/02/2025 | 1530/1030 | 31-Jan | US | Natural Gas Stocks w/w | -- | -- | Bcf |
| 06/02/2025 | 1630/1130 | 07-Feb | US | Bid to Cover Ratio | -- | -- | |
| 06/02/2025 | 1630/1130 | 07-Feb | US | Bid to Cover Ratio | -- | -- | |
| 06/02/2025 | 1900/1400 | MX | Interest Rate | 10 | 9.5 | % | |
| 07/02/2025 | 2330/0830 | Jan | JP | Household spending y/y | -- | -- | % |
| 07/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | Dec | DE | Trade balance exports m/m | 2.1 | -- | % |
| 07/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | Dec | DE | Trade balance imports m/m | -3.3 | -- | % |
| 07/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | Dec | DE | Trade balance m/m | 19.7 | 17 | E (b) |
| 07/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | Dec | DE | Industrial Production m/m | -- | -0.3 | % |
| 07/02/2025 | 0745/0845 | Dec | FR | Foreign Trade | -- | -- | E (b) |
| 07/02/2025 | 0800/0900 | Dec | ES | Industrial Production y/y | -- | -- | % |
| 07/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Jan | CA | Employment Change | 90.9 | -- | (k) |
| 07/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Jan | CA | Unemployment Rate | 6.7 | -- | % |
| 07/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Jan | US | Average Hourly Earnings y/y, current month | 3.9 | 3.8 | % |
| 07/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Jan | US | Average Hourly Earnings, m/m | 0.3 | 0.3 | % |
| 07/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Jan | US | Average Workweek, All Workers | 34.3 | 34.3 | hrs |
| 07/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Jan | US | Nonfarm Payrolls | 256 | 160 | (k) |
| 07/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Jan | US | Prev Nonfarm Payrolls, Rev | -- | -- | (k) |
| 07/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Jan | US | Private Payrolls | 223 | 135 | (k) |
| 07/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Jan | US | Unemployment Rate | 4.1 | 4.1 | % |
| 07/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Jan | US | Unemployment Rate (3 dp) | 4.086 | -- | % |
| 07/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | Dec | US | Wholesale Inventories m/m | -0.2 | -- | % |
| 07/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | Dec | US | Wholesale Sales m/m | 0.6 | -- | % |
| 07/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | Jan | US | U. Mich Consumer Expectations | 69.3 | -- | |
| 07/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | Jan | US | U. Mich Consumer Sentiment | 71.1 | -- | |
| 07/02/2025 | 1500/1000 | Jan | US | U. Mich Current Economic Conditions | 74 | -- | |
| 07/02/2025 | 1800/1300 | 07-Feb | US | Baker Hughes Canada Gas Rig Count | -- | -- | |
| 07/02/2025 | 1800/1300 | 07-Feb | US | Baker Hughes Canada Oil Rig Count | -- | -- | |
| 07/02/2025 | 1800/1300 | 07-Feb | US | Baker Hughes Canada Rig Count | -- | -- | |
| 07/02/2025 | 1800/1300 | 07-Feb | US | Baker Hughes US Gas Rig Count | -- | -- | |
| 07/02/2025 | 1800/1300 | 07-Feb | US | Baker Hughes US Oil Rig Count | -- | -- | |
| 07/02/2025 | 1800/1300 | 07-Feb | US | Baker Hughes US Rig Count | -- | -- | |
| 07/02/2025 | 2000/1500 | Dec | US | Consumer Credit m/m | -7.5 | 10.5 | USD (b) |
| 09/02/2025 | 0130/0930 | Jan | CN | CPI y/y | -- | -- | % |
| 09/02/2025 | 0130/0930 | Jan | CN | PPI y/y | -- | -- | % |
| 10/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | Jan | NO | CPI m/m | -0.1 | -- | % |
| 10/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | Jan | NO | CPI y/y | 2.2 | -- | % |
| 10/02/2025 | - | Jan | CN | M2 YTD y/y | -- | -- | % |
| 10/02/2025 | - | Jan | CN | New Loans | -- | -- | CNY (t) |
| 10/02/2025 | - | Q4 | CN | Social Financing | -- | -- | CNY (t) |
| 10/02/2025 | 1600/1100 | Feb | US | NY Fed 1y Cons Infl Exp (med) | -- | -- | % |
| 10/02/2025 | 1600/1100 | Feb | US | NY Fed 3y Cons Infl Exp (med) | -- | -- | % |
| 10/02/2025 | 1600/1100 | Feb | US | NY Fed 5y Cons Infl Exp (med) | -- | -- | % |
| 11/02/2025 | 0001/0001 | Jan | UK | BRC Like-for-Like Sales y/y | 3.1 | -- | % |
| 11/02/2025 | 0001/0001 | Jan | UK | BRC Total Sales y/y | 3.2 | -- | % |
| 11/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | Jan | NO | GDP M/M | -- | -- | % |
| 11/02/2025 | 0700/0800 | Jan | NO | GDP Mainland M/M | -- | -- | % |
| 11/02/2025 | 1100/0600 | Jan | US | NFIB Small Business Index | -- | -- | |
| 11/02/2025 | 1330/0830 | Dec | CA | Building Permits | -- | -- | % |
| 11/02/2025 | 1355/0855 | 08-Feb | US | Redbook Retail Sales y/y (month) | -- | -- | % |
| 11/02/2025 | 1355/0855 | 08-Feb | US | Redbook Retail Sales y/y (week) | -- | -- | % |
| 11/02/2025 | 1700/1200 | 15/16 | US | Corn Ending Stocks current year | -- | -- | (m) |
| 11/02/2025 | 1700/1200 | 15/16 | US | Corn Production current year | -- | -- | (m) |
| 11/02/2025 | 1700/1200 | 15/16 | US | Corn yield per acre current year | -- | -- | |
| 11/02/2025 | 1700/1200 | 15/16 | US | Cotton Ending Stocks current year | -- | -- | (m) |
| 11/02/2025 | 1700/1200 | 15/16 | US | Cotton Production current year | -- | -- | (m) |
| 11/02/2025 | 1700/1200 | 15/16 | US | Soybeans - Ending Stocks current year | -- | -- | (m) |
| 11/02/2025 | 1700/1200 | 15/16 | US | Soybeans Production current year | -- | -- | (m) |
| 11/02/2025 | 1700/1200 | 15/16 | US | Soybeans yield per acre current year | -- | -- | |
| 11/02/2025 | 1700/1200 | 15/16 | US | Wheat - Ending Stocks current year | -- | -- | (m) |
| 11/02/2025 | 1700/1200 | 15/16 | US | Wheat Production current year | -- | -- | (m) |
