STIR: BoE-Dated OIS Still Pricing Over 55bp Of Cuts Through Dec, Ramsden Due Fri

• The Richmond Fed manufacturing survey rounded out the five regional Fed reports for January, with the five on balance seeing a sequential improvement.
• The Richmond mfg index beat expectations as it increased to -4 in Jan (cons -10) from -10 in Dec for a further improvement away from the low of -21 in September. It’s now the least negative since May.
• New orders painted a broadly similar story, at -4 after -11 although that was its least negative since Oct 2023.
• Looking more broadly, three of the five regional Fed indices saw improvements in January, whilst Kansas held steady for roughly a fourth consecutive month and Empire gave back some of its prior gains.
• Philly clearly stood out though, surging from -10.9 to 44.3 for the highest since the 44.4 in Apr 2021 and before that 1984.
• That biased the unweighted average of the five series firmly higher, rising from -3.9 to +7.4 for its first positive reading since May 2022.
• Taken directly, it points to an ISM manufacturing reading comfortably in the 50s at would be a sizeable beat, currently expected at 48.9 in Jan after 49.2 (released next Monday). However, the localized nature of regional strength suggests caution is needed. 

The DMO has announced it will be looking forward to sell GBP4.25bln of the 4.375% Mar-30 Gilt (ISIN: GB00BSQNRD01) at its auction next Tuesday, February 4.

• Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
• 01/28 $2B Carnival Corp 8NC3
• 01/28 $2B #Arab Republic of Egypt $1.25B 5Y 8.625%a, $750M 8Y 9.45%
• 01/28 $750M #Ziraat Bank 5Y 7.375%
• 01/28 $Benchmark American Express 6NC5 +100a, 6NC5 SOFR, 11NC10 +120a
• 01/28 $Benchmark Toronto-Dominion Bank 3Y +85a, 3Y SOFR, 7Y +105a
• 01/28 $Benchmark Capital One 11NC10 +195a
• 01/28 $Benchmark JPMorgan PerpNC5 7%a
• 01/28 $Benchmark Aircastle 5Y +137.5a
• 01/28 $Benchmark ForteBank 5Y 8%a