STIR: BoE Pricing Sticky Around 70bp Of '25 Cuts

• The Dollar is mixed against G10 going into the last day of the Year, the Yen is up 0.35% and at the other end of the spectrum the Kiwi is down 0.28% at least for Today.
• Overall the Dollar is king going into 2025, acted as a safer haven throughout the Year, and has also been supported as Desks look for Less cuts from the Fed with Donald Trump on the cusp of taking over the Presidency.
• The biggest loser in G10 YTD is the Kiwi, down some 10.9% for that period, NZDUSD printed a 0.5608 low in December, which was its lowest printed level since October 2022.
• For today, 0.5620 is holding, and market participants will be looking for initial support at 0.5600.
• The NOK is the 2nd worst performer, down 10.26%, printed its lowest level in December since March 2020.
• Main upside Psychological level is still at 11.50 in USDNOK, managed a 11.4769 high on the 20th December.

• RES 4: 6194.19 1.236 proj of the Aug 5 - Sep 3 - Sep 9 price swing    
• RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 and key resistance   
• RES 2: 6163.75 High Dec 16  
• RES 1: 6014.44/6107.50 50-day EMA / High Dec 26         
• PRICE: 5957.00 @ 07:22 GMT Dec 31
• SUP 1: 5918.25/5866.00 Low Dec 30 / 20       
• SUP 2: 5811.65 38.2% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg  
• SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4 
• SUP 4: 5698.25 50.0% retracement of the Aug 5 - Dec 6 bull leg

A bear threat in the S&P E-Minis contract remains present and the latest move down highlights the end of the recent Dec 20 - 26 corrective bounce. An extension lower would expose 5866.00, the Dec 20 low and a key short-term support. Clearance of this level would strengthen a bearish theme. Initial firm resistance to monitor is 6107.50, the Dec 26 high. A break of this level is required to open key resistance at 6178.75, the Dec 6 high.

• RES 4: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
• RES 3: $2664.5 - High Dec 16
• RES 2: $2726.2 - High Dec 12    
• RES 1: $2637.3/2692.8 - 50-day EMA / High Dec 13     
• PRICE: $2607.7 @ 07:22 GMT Dec 31 
• SUP 1: $2583.6 - Low Dec 19   
• SUP 2: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18
• SUP 3: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support 
• SUP 4: $2511.1 - Low Sep 12  

A bear threat in Gold remains present. The yellow metal traded sharply lower on Dec 18 and the move undermines a recent bull theme. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. MA studies are in a bull mode position highlighting a medium-term uptrend and this suggests that the latest sell-off is likely a correction. Initial pivot resistance is $2637.3, the 50-day EMA. A breach of this EMA would be positive for bulls.