THAILAND: BoT Sets Bar To Next Cut High, Says Current Level Is "Neutral"
Wires carry comments from Bank of Thailand's (BoT's) Assistant Governor Sakkapop Panyanukul, Secretary of the Monetary Policy Committee (MPC), who guides that the bar for the next rate cut is high following today's unexpected 25bp reduction.
- The official emphasises that today's cut is not a start of an easing cycle, adding that the MPC sees the current level of the key rate as "neutral".
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STIR: Dovish Repricing In EUR STIRs, ECB Decision Headlines This Week
This morning’s rally in global core FI (see earlier posts for colour) has spilled over into EUR STIRs, with year-end ECB implied rates 3bps below Friday’s close. That leaves ECB-dated OIS pricing 91bps of easing through December, with 75bps of cuts priced through the first half of this year.
- December ’25 implied rates are still more hawkish than before Friday’s stronger-than-expected January flash PMIs. We note that some analysts have raised questions around the seasonality of the PMIs post-Covid, which may have biased readings higher in Q1.
- Euribor futures are +1.5 to +4.5 ticks through the blues. ERZ5 is +3.0 ticks at 97.860 this morning, widening the gap with support at 97.7950 (Jan 13 low), which contained downside on Friday.
- Thursday’s ECB decision headlines this week’s regional data calendar, with a 25bp cut unanimously expected by analysts and essentially fully priced in OIS. Our ECB preview will be released tomorrow.
- We also get flash Q4 GDP, the ECB's Bank Lending Survey, December money/credit , January EC sentiment and January flash inflation data this week, while the Fed decision and communications from US President Trump will also be in focus.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jan-25 | 2.675 | -24.6 |
| Mar-25 | 2.455 | -46.6 |
| Apr-25 | 2.323 | -59.8 |
| Jun-25 | 2.174 | -74.7 |
| Jul-25 | 2.124 | -79.7 |
| Sep-25 | 2.058 | -86.3 |
| Oct-25 | 2.039 | -88.3 |
| Dec-25 | 2.009 | -91.3 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
AUDUSD TECHS: Tests Resistance At The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 0.6441 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 - Jan 13 downleg
- RES 3: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 2: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 1: 0.6326/6331 50-day EMA / High Jan 24
- PRICE: 0.6279 @ 07:59 GMT Jan 27
- SUP 1: 0.6252 20-day EMA
- SUP 3: 0.6165/31 Low Jan 17 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 3: 0.6100 Round number support
- SUP 4: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
A medium-term bearish trend condition in AUDUSD remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective. The pair traded higher last week and in the process pierced resistance at 0.6326, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of the EMA would strengthen a short-term bullish condition and open 0.6384, the Dec 13 high. The key support and bear trigger has been defined at 0.6131, the Jan 13 low.
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt calls, 92.26/92.36.
