EURGBP TECHS: Bounces Nicely Ahead of Support
- RES 4: 0.8494 High Aug 26 ‘24
- RES 3: 0.8474 High Jan 20 and a key resistance
- RES 2: 0.8428/8450 High Mar 18 / 11 and the bull trigger
- RES 1: 0.8395 High Mar 24 and a key near-term resistance
- PRICE: 0.8364 @ 16:40 GMT Mar 28
- SUP 1: 0.8324 Low Mar 27
- SUP 2: 0.8321 61.8% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg
- SUP 3: 0.8391 76.4% retracement of the Mar 3 - 11 bull leg
- SUP 4: 0.8241 Low Mar 3 and a key support
A bear cycle in EURGBP remains in play despite the swift bounce off lows ahead of the Friday close. For now, the move down that started Mar 11 still appears corrective and has allowed a recent overbought condition to unwind. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. The next support to monitor lies at 0.8321, a Fibonacci retracement. Resistance to watch is 0.8395, the Mar 24 high.
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PIPELINE: Corporate Bond Roundup: $7B HSBC 5Pt Launched
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 02/26 $7B #HSBC $1.5B 4NC3 +85, $750M 4NC3 SOFR+103, $1.75B 6NC5 +105, $$750M 6NC5 SOFR+129, $2.25B 11NC10 +120
- 02/26 $1.5B #Kenya 11Y 9.95%
- 02/26 $750M #Danske Bank 6NC5 +93
- 02/26 $700M #Tabreed 5Y Sukuk +115
- 02/26 $700M #Reinsurance Group 30NC10 6.65%
- 02/26 $Benchmark McDonalds Corp 5Y +55, 10Y +72
GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Firms Further
- RES 4: 1.2879 2.0% 10-dma envelope
- RES 3: 1.2811 High Dec 6 ‘24
- RES 2: 1.2767 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.2709 High Feb 26
- PRICE: 1.2702 @ 16:13 GMT Feb 26
- SUP 1: 1.2563 Low Feb 19
- SUP 2: 1.2528 50-day EMA
- SUP 3: 1.2440 Low Feb 13
- SUP 4: 1.2333 Low Feb 11 and a key support
The trend condition in GBPUSD firmed further Wednesday, with the pair building on recent gains. The latest recovery confirms a resumption of the uptrend that started Jan 13 and maintains the current sequence of higher highs and higher lows. An extension would strengthen the bullish condition and open 1.2767, the 50.0% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2528, the 50-day EMA.
US: Americans Voters Sceptical Of Canada/Mexico Tariffs
A new survey from Elon University found that, “A substantial majority of Americans anticipate rising costs due to import tariffs. More than 80% of respondents said they believe tariffs will lead to increased prices, with 45% expecting significant hikes.
- “The impact on small businesses is a major concern, as 50% of respondents look for negative consequences, while only 19% expect a positive impact. The partisan divide is stark, with 93% of Democrats and 79% of Independents saying tariffs will lead to higher prices, compared with only 69% of Republicans.”
- Jason Husser, director of the Elon University Poll, said: “A majority of those who voted for Trump anticipate tariffs will lead to higher prices for consumers and challenges for U.S. exporters. However, this is offset by a majority of Trump voters who see tariffs as something that will strengthen American manufacturing and jobs.”
- Politico notes, according to polling from British firm Public First, "more Americans oppose Trump’s threatened tariffs against Canada and Mexico than support them... “[J]ust 28 percent of American adults supported specifically applying tariffs to Canada, while 43 percent were opposed. Tariffs on Mexico were also slightly unpopular, with 35 percent of adults supportive and 39 percent opposed.”
Figure 1: What will Proposed Import Tariffs do to Prices?
Source: Elon University
