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STIR: Mix Of Modest Long Setting & Short Cover In SOFR Futures On Friday
OI data points to a mix of modest net long setting & short cover as most SOFR futures ticked higher on Friday.
- Net long setting in SFRH8 through SFRU8 stands out a in percentage of OI terms, with little else of note seen elsewhere.
| 24-Jan-25 | 23-Jan-25 | Daily OI Change |
| Daily OI Change In Packs |
SFRZ4 | 1,057,493 | 1,062,983 | -5,490 | Whites | -14,166 |
SFRH5 | 1,198,289 | 1,203,506 | -5,217 | Reds | +14,807 |
SFRM5 | 1,038,150 | 1,039,580 | -1,430 | Greens | -10,348 |
SFRU5 | 786,287 | 788,316 | -2,029 | Blues | +15,104 |
SFRZ5 | 1,027,911 | 1,017,952 | +9,959 |
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SFRH6 | 689,139 | 694,579 | -5,440 |
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SFRM6 | 672,660 | 662,840 | +9,820 |
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SFRU6 | 624,264 | 623,796 | +468 |
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SFRZ6 | 720,952 | 720,689 | +263 |
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SFRH7 | 486,186 | 489,579 | -3,393 |
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SFRM7 | 399,895 | 403,562 | -3,667 |
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SFRU7 | 292,532 | 296,083 | -3,551 |
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SFRZ7 | 277,016 | 277,903 | -887 |
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SFRH8 | 213,396 | 207,954 | +5,442 |
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SFRM8 | 183,807 | 175,061 | +8,746 |
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SFRU8 | 116,171 | 114,368 | +1,803 |
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OPTIONS: Expiries for Jan27 NY cut 1000ET (Source DTCC)
- EUR/USD: $1.0500(E729mln)
- USD/JPY: Y155.95-00($1.6bln)
- EUR/JPY: Y163.00(E565mln)
- AUD/USD: $0.6300(A$778mln)
- USD/CAD: C$1.4275($600mln)
- USD/CNY: Cny7.6000($2.1bln)
US 10YR FUTURE TECHS: (H5) Approaching The 50-Day EMA
- RES 4: 110-25 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 110-19 76.4% retracement of the Dec 6 - Jan 13 bear leg.
- RES 2: 109-31 High Dec 18
- RES 1: 109-12+ 50-day EMA
- PRICE: 109-11 @ 11:21 GMT Jan 27
- SUP 1: 108-00/107-06 Low Jan 16 / 13 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 107-04 Low Apr 25 ‘24 and a key support
- SUP 3: 107-00 Round number support
- SUP 4: 106-11 2.00 proj of the Oct 1 - 14 - 16 price swing
The medium-term trend condition in Treasury futures is down, however a bullish short-term cycle highlights an ongoing corrective phase and the contract is trading higher today. Attention is on 109-12+, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this EMA is required to strengthen a bullish theme. This would open 109-31, the Dec 18 high. The bear trigger is unchanged at 107-06, the Jan 13 low. Initial support has been defined at 108-00, the Jan 16 low.
