FINANCIALS: BPER - Q4 Results

Gilt futures off opening highs, with core global FI markets seeing some light selling pressure in recent trade.

• Contract last +10 at 91.50.
• Bearish technicals intact, initial support at yesterday’s low (91.31), while initial resistance comes in at yesterday’s high (92.13)
• Yields 1-2bp lower across the curve, light bull steepening.
• 10s last 4.67%, focus on 4.70% next, yesterday’s high was 4.687%.
• 30s topped out at 5.25% yesterday, which represents the highest level seen since ’98.
• 10-Year gilt/Bunds ~2bp tighter on the day, last ~216bp.
• There isn’t anything of note on the UK data calendar today, which will leave focus on swelling global supply and U.S. data.
• On the supply front, the DMO will return to market today, looking to sell GBP4.25bln of the 4.375% Mar-30 gilt.
• This morning has already seen the DMO confirm a syndicated re-opening of the 4.375% 2040 gilt, planned for w/c January 20 "subject to demand and market conditions".

• RES 4: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger  
• RES 3: $33.125 - High Nov 1 
• RES 2: $32.338 - High Dec 12 and a key resistance  
• RES 1: $30.489 - 50-day EMA                             
• PRICE: $30.054 @ 08:08 GMT Jan 8  
• SUP 1: $28.748 - Low Dec 19        
• SUP 2: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle 
• SUP 3: $27.686 - Low Sep 6 
• SUP 4: $26.451 - Low Aug 8  

A bear cycle in Silver that started Oct 23 remains in play - for now - and recent gains appear corrective. The metal has recently breached support at $29.642, the Nov 28 low. The break lower opens $28.446, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position highlighting a dominant downtrend. Key resistance has been defined at $32.338, the Dec 12 high. A break of this level would signal a reversal.

• RES 4: 1.4676 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 1: 1.4467 High Dec 19 
• PRICE: 1.4360 @ 08:04 GMT Jan 8 
• SUP 1: 1.4326/4280 20-day EMA / Low Jan 6  
• SUP 2: 1.4232 Low Dec 17 
• SUP 3: 1.4163 50-day EMA
• SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5

USDCAD traded lower Monday. The trend set-up remains bullish and the move down is considered corrective. The latest pause in the uptrend appears to be a flag formation - a bullish continuation signal. Note too that MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights are on 1.4508 next, a Fibonacci projection level. 1.4326, the 20-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear break of the EMA would open 1.4163, the 50-day EMA.