RIKSBANK: Breman Highlights Business Survey As Important MonPol Input

Riksbank First Deputy Governor Breman’s speech on “How trade barriers affect Swedish growth and inflation” is here.

• There has been relatively little impact on the SEK at typing.
• On current monetary policy, Breman echoes the Riksbank’s guidance that “we are prepared both to raise and to lower the policy rate” if the outlook changes, while re-iterating that “Sweden is well placed for a good economic recovery in 2025 and for inflation to remain in line with the target”.
• She highlights the next Business Survey (due March 3) as an important input into the next monetary policy decision (joining fellow Board member Bunge): “In the Riksbank's current business survey, we are asking specific questions on increased trade barriers, which may provide an indication of how Swedish firms are adapting to the threat of tariffs”.
• If trade barriers were raised, “Swedish GDP would slow down, while the effect on inflation in Sweden is uncertain”, but the overall impact would be on “ the scope of the tariffs, which countries are affected, and how these countries respond with various countermeasures”.