UK DATA: Brightmine: Median Pay Awards At Lowest Level Since 2021
In case you missed this overnight, Brightmine median basic pay awards in the 3 months to January cam...
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GBPUSD TECHS: Bearish Outlook Remains Intact
- RES 4: 1.2607 High Dec 30
- RES 3: 1.2554 50-day EMA
- RES 2: 1.2376 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 1.2306 High Jan 06
- PRICE: 1.2209 @ 06:23 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: 1.2100 Low Jan 10 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 1.2087 0.764 proj of the Sep 26 - Nov 22 - Dec 6 price swing
- SUP 3: 1.2037 Low Oct 4 ‘23 and a key support
- SUP 4: 1.2000 Psychological round number
The trend direction in GBPUSD remains down and short-term gains are considered corrective. Recent weakness has confirmed a resumption of the downtrend and marks an extension of the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Note too that moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. Sights are on 1.2087 next, a Fibonacci projection. Initial firm resistance is at 1.2398, the 20-day EMA.
LOOK AHEAD: UK Timeline of Key Events (GMT Times)
| Date | UK | Period | Event |
| 21-Jan | 0700 | Nov/Dec | Labour Market Survey |
| 22-Jan | 0001 | Dec | Brightmine pay deals for whole economy |
| 22-Jan | 0700 | Dec | Public Sector Finances |
| 23-Jan | 1100 | Jan | CBI Industrial Trends |
| 24-Jan | 0001 | Jan | Gfk Monthly Consumer Confidence |
| 24-Jan | 0930 | Jan | S&P Global Flash PMI |
| 24-Jan | 1100 | Jan | CBI Distributive Trades |
| 28-Jan | 0001 | Jan | BRC Monthly Shop Price Index |
| 30-Jan | 0930 | Nov | BOE Lending to Individuals/ M4 |
| 03-Feb | 0930 | Jan | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Manufacturing PMI |
| 05-Feb | 0930 | Jan | S&P Global/ CIPS UK Final Services PMI |
| 06-Feb | 0930 | Jan | S&P Global/CIPS Construction PMI |
| 06-Feb | 1200 | Bank Of England Interest Rate | |
| 06-Feb | 1400 | Decision Maker Panel data | |
| 11-Feb | 0001 | Jan | BRC-KPMG Shop Sales Monitor |
| 13-Feb | 0700 | Dec | GDP/ Trade/ Services/ Production / Construction |
| 13-Feb | 0700 | Q4 | GDP First Estimate |
BOBL TECHS: (H5) Corrective Cycle Extends
- RES 4: 118.640 Low Dec 6
- RES 3: 118.520 High Dec 13
- RES 2: 117.329 20-day EMA
- RES 1: 117-100 High Jan 17
- PRICE: 116.960 @ 06:03 GMT Jan 20
- SUP 1: 116.50/280 Low Jan 16 / Low Jan 14 / 15 and the bear trigger
- SUP 2: 116.210 Low Jul 12 2024 (cont)
- SUP 3: 115.980 Low Jul 11 ‘24 (cont)
- SUP 4: 115.745 1.50 proj of the Oct 1 - 31 - Dec 2 ‘24 price swing
A bear cycle in Bobl futures remains intact, however, the Jan 15 rally highlights a possible short-term reversal and the start of a corrective cycle. An extension higher is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 117.329, the 20-day EMA. On the downside, a break of 116.280, the Jan 14 / 15 low, would confirm a resumption of the bear cycle.
