FOREX: Broad Dollar Weakness Pervades, USDCHF Prints Below 0.8400
* Although off its worst levels, the session has been characterised by a resumption of US dollar w...
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EQUITIES: EuroStoxx 50 Futures Through First Support
The recently outlined risk-negative factors push EuroStoxx 50 futures through Friday’s low.
- The 20-day EMA (5,445.11) has also been breached, exposing next support at the March 4 low (5,373.00).
- Zooming out, the technical trend in the contract is unchanged, remaining bullish, trading closer to its recent trend highs. This remains the case as long as the contract holds above the March 4 low.
CROSS ASSET: Risk-Off Trade Driven By 3 Factors
Broader risk-off trade seems to be driven by 3 major factors:
- Continued U.S. growth worry.
- Signs of tension within the German fiscal negotiations as the Greens grow a little louder when it comes to voicing some lingering areas of dissent. Most still expect the well-documented fiscal reform to be passed, however, the headlines remind market participants of the tight time constraints and continued potential for posturing/headwinds ahead of any deal.
- Social media reports suggesting that the Finance Minister of Israel has said that fighting in Gaza is set to resume in absence of progress in negotiations with Hamas, with the new chief of staff having “a more effective combat plan than his predecessor”.
COMMODITIES: Last Week's Cycle Lows Reinforce Bearish WTI Future Trend
A bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact and last week’s fresh short-term cycle lows reinforce current conditions. Recent weakness has resulted in a clear breach of support at $70.20, the Feb 6 low. This confirmed a resumption of the downtrend that started Jan 15 and has paved the way for an extension towards $63.61 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. Key short-term pivot resistance is seen at $70.54, the 50-day EMA. Gold is unchanged. The trend condition remains bullish and the recent pullback appears to have been a correction. A stronger rally would refocus attention on $2962.2, a Fibonacci projection. This would also open the $3000.0 handle. On the downside, a resumption of weakness would instead suggest scope for a deeper correction and expose support around the 50-day EMA, at $2823.8. The 50-day average marks a key support.
- WTI Crude up $0.02 or +0.03% at $67.09
- Natural Gas up $0.21 or +4.73% at $4.61
- Gold spot down $9.6 or -0.33% at $2899.23
- Copper down $4.45 or -0.94% at $466.5
- Silver down $0.18 or -0.56% at $32.3488
- Platinum down $1.47 or -0.15% at $967.77
