GBPUSD TECHS: Bull Cycle Firms Further

• Ontario Premier Doug Ford plans to call an election for Feb. 27, arguing he needs a mandate to tackle the threat of U.S. tariffs. He's also shown unease since the Liberals brought in a new leader.
• Donald Trump delayed his threat of a 25% tariff to Feb. 1 or later, pulling back from earlier signals he would do so upon taking office.
• Prime Minister Justin Trudeau will resign March 24 to allow for a Liberal leadership race. Mark Carney gains momentum over Chrystia Freeland in the decision set for March 9, grabbing cabinet minister endorsements while Freeland struggles to define her record in CBC interview.
• Trudeau has suspended Parliamentary business until his March 24 resignation, short-circuiting opposition parties who intended to force a snap election when the legislature had been due to open Jan. 27.
• Foreign interference inquiry report due for release Tuesday, unclear if any current lawmakers will be revealed.
• Polling aggregator 338Canada shows Conservatives likely to win majority government if election were held now.

• Broad risk-off trade dominated global markets on Monday, prompting notorious safe haven swithin G10 FX to outperform, while risk sensitive currencies bore the brunt of the waning sentiment.
• The assumption that US firms will remain market-leaders in artificial intelligence was challenged this weekend with the rise of China's Deepseek - a product demonstrating that not only can AI be rolled out extremely cheaply and effectively, but also that the US' targeted chips sanctions are failing to contain China's tech industry.
• The USDJPY (-1.10%) selloff picked up momentum following the clean trendline break, drawn from the September lows, bolstered by the breach of a cluster of lows just below the 155 handle.
• Barring a meaningful reversal, the pair looks set to close below its 50-day EMA, which intersects today at 155.15. This would represent the first close below this average since December 09 and is a meaningful bearish development technically. This paves the way for an extension towards 152.55, a Fibonacci retracement point, and 151.81, the Dec 12 low.
• AUD (-0.55%) and NZD (-0.47%) are among the poorest performers, with the effect compounded by Trump's tariff sabre-rattling toward Colombia over the weekend. The USD Index is near last week's lows, holding close to the lowest levels of 2025. The Fed decision mid-week looks key here - as Powell's messaging on rates across this year is set to steer price action.
• Emerging market currencies have been heavily impacted, with notable 2% declines for the likes of the Mexican peso and the South African rand against the dollar providing a key insight to the sensitivities surrounding global equity sentiment and tariff related developments.
• US durable goods and consumer confidence highlights Tuesday’s docket, before G10 central bank decisions kick off on Wednesday.

SNB President Schlegel appears to be sticking to prior rhetoric in his interview with Swiss broadcaster SRF to be published today 9:15pm according to some preliminary headlines which appeared on Bloomberg. The headlines continue to lean dovish, but we would argue they reiterate Schlegel's prior communication:

• "IF NEEDED, EASING SHOULD BE DONE QUICKLY" note that he opposed any "dry powder" arguments at the press conference following the 50bp cut December meeting.
• "MONTHLY INFLATION DATA MAY DIP BELOW ZERO" also lines up with December meeting commentary
• "SWISS INFLATION TO BE RELATIVELY LOW THIS YEAR" in line with the conditional inflation forecast seeing Q1 average inflation at only 0.3% Y/Y.

Swiss STIR pricing meanwhile appears to have taken the commentary with a dovish tilt, with the Dec-25 3m SARON future pricing in around 3bp more easing since the headlines were released, for a current 99.90. However, note that SARON liquidity is likely limited at the moment given timing on the day.

EURCHF remains unchanged since the comments, hovering just above 0.9450 and down 0.58% on the session.