SILVER TECHS: Bullish Trend Condition
- RES 4: $35.736 - 1.236 proj of the Feb 14 - Apr 12 - May 2 ‘24 swing
- RES 3: $34.903 - High Oct 23 and the bull trigger
- RES 2: $34.000 - Round number resistance
- RES 1: $33.450 - 76.4% of the Oct 23 - Dec 19 ‘24 bear leg
- PRICE: $32.938 @ 07:54 GMT Feb 20
- SUP 1: $31.820/229 - 20- and 50-day EMA values
- SUP 2: $29.704 - Low Jan 27
- SUP 3: $28.748 - Low Dec 19 and bear trigger
- SUP 4: $28.446 - 76.4% retracement of the Aug 8 - Oct 23 bull cycle
A bull theme in Silver remains intact despite the pullback from last Friday’s high. Recent gains confirm a resumption of the bull cycle that started Dec 19 and sights are on $33.450, a Fibonacci retracement. Clearance of this level would further strengthen a bull theme. On the downside, key short-term support is seen at 31.229, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this level would highlight a potential reversal.
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EQUITIES: EU Cash opening calls
Despite the Overnight Volatility in Equities, futures have been more stable since the Trump Tariffs headline, and we should be set for a calmer, steadier open.
- Calls: Estox 50: -0.04%, Dax: -0.11%, CAC: +0.04%, FTSE +0.19%, SMI +0.07%.
US TSY FUTURES: TY Blocked
Latest block trade lodged at 07:27:29 London/02:27:29 NY:
- TYH5 5.0K lots blocked at 108-27+, looks like a seller.
- DV01 ~$321K.
STIR: Risk-Off Dominates Wage Data, 63bp Of BoE Cuts Priced For '25
GBP STIRs react to the overnight rally in core global FI markets more so than the upside surprise in private regular wages, although the latter does limit the initial dovish move.
- BoE-dated OIS little changed to 1bp more dovish, showing 63bp of cuts through year-end.
- The next 25bp cut is fully discounted through the March MPC, with ~22bp of easing showing for February.
- SONIA futures 0.5-2.0 higher, back from opening highs.
- Trump tariff threats surrounding Mexico & Canada drove some risk-off trade in Asia hours, as markets looked more towards growth headwinds generated by U.S. tariffs than an inflationary threat.
- The BoE has already questioned the validity of the UK labour market data (which is understandable given the well-documented issues the ONS has had with data collation).
- Also note that some MPC members have played down the importance of wage data if the economy starts to slow and unemployment starts to increase.
- Still, the upside surprise in private regular wage growth is incompatible with a 2% inflation target (particularly with stagnant productivity growth).
- Macro cues eyed for the remainder of the day, while a syndicated tap is expected in the UK long end.
BoE Meeting | SONIA BoE-Dated OIS (%) | Difference vs. Current Effective SONIA Rate (bp) |
Feb-25 | 4.483 | -21.7 |
Mar-25 | 4.433 | -26.7 |
May-25 | 4.302 | -39.8 |
Jun-25 | 4.251 | -44.9 |
Aug-25 | 4.163 | -53.7 |
Sep-25 | 4.137 | -56.3 |
Nov-25 | 4.087 | -61.3 |
Dec-25 | 4.071 | -62.9 |
