BUNDS: Bund and Treasuries stays underpinned overall
Feb-14 07:22
- The German Bund is seeing some small offers post Cash open, as Equities (VGH5) spikes higher, but note that the Estoxx did trade as high as 5511.00 Yesterday, so still short of the level, now at 5502.00.
- Some mixed early flow on the Open, selling in Tnotes (TYH5) is met by buyers, around 6k bought from the lows (cumulative volumes).
- The German contract saw a good bounce off Yesterday noted gap of 132.23 and ahead of the 2.50% Yield that equated to 131.97, fall in Gas price, followed by the US PPI that hinted to weak PCE component, plus delayed talk on Tariffs, helped Bund rally 78 ticks Yesterday.
- Small initial resistance in Bund is at 133.13, although our Tech desk points to the 50 day EMA at 133.00 today.
- Support moves up to 132.55, but Yesterday's levels remains (2.50% Yield).
- Focus today is on the EU GDP, and on the other side of the Pond, US Retail sales to end the Week.
- SPEAKERS: Fed Logan.
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GOLD TECHS: Monitoring Resistance
Jan-15 07:20
- RES 4: $2762.3 - High Nov 1
- RES 3: $2730.4 - 76.4% retracement of the Oct 31 - Nov 14 bear leg
- RES 2: $2726.2 - High Dec 12
- RES 1: $2698.0 - High Jan 10
- PRICE: $2682.2 @ 07:19 GMT Jan 15
- SUP 1: $2644.3 - 50-day EMA
- SUP 2: $2596.2/2583.6 - Low Dec 30 / 19
- SUP 3: $2564.4 - Low Nov 18
- SUP 4: $2536.9 - Low Nov 14 and a key support
Recent gains in Gold appear corrective - for now. However, the yellow metal continues to hold on to the bulk of last week’s gains and scope is seen for a continuation higher near-term. A stronger recovery would open $2726.2, the Dec 12 high and an important resistance. Clearance of this level would be a bullish development. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. Initial support is at $2644.3, the 50-day EMA.
UK DATA: Volatile categories contribute to the negative surprise in UK CPI
Jan-15 07:15
Looking through the details here we have services notably softer than expected at 4.37%Y/Y. Core goods and food/alcohol a little higher than expected (so less of a surprise in core / headline).
- Air fares are soft. Only rising 16.2%M/M in December - the expectations we had seen for that were around 40-45%M/M (remember this is NSA data). They alone contributed to headline CPI falling 0.14ppt and around double that for services CPI.
- Accommodation services also soft - contributing -0.07ppt to headline CPI.
- Cultural services -0.04ppt contribution.
- Other than that clothing and tobacco (both expected to contribute negatively).
- At first glance this doesn't look very broad-based at all and is largely the most volatile components contributing almost entirely to the downside in services / core / headline CPI.
- GBPUSD hit a low of 1.2163 but is around 20 pips higher at the time of writing.
MNI: UK DEC CPI +0.3% M/M, +2.5% Y/Y
Jan-15 07:07
- MNI: UK DEC CPI +0.3% M/M, +2.5% Y/Y
