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UK DATA: Manufacturing PMI sees SMEs under perform big businesses
Feb-03 09:40
Looking at the details from the UK manufacturing PMI press release the main colour is surrounding the differential between SMEs and large businesses.
- New orders and employment have been hit much harder at both small and medium-sized businesses than large businesses.
- Outside of that little more new to the flash release with continued concerns surrounding the Budget and employer NICs. And export demand is also waning.
STIR: Euribor Future Scale Off Lows Alongside Bunds
Feb-03 09:36
Euribor futures are scaling off lows alongside Bunds, looking through the upward revision to the Eurozone January manufacturing PMI. Futures are now +3.0 to +7.5 ticks through the blues, with the back of the whites/front of the reds leading.
- Limited changes in ECB-dated OIS relative to this morning, with 88bps of easing priced through year-end.
- OIS more than fully price a 25bp cut in March. ECB’s Simkus does not believe a March cut “should be the last one”, and played down the role of the neutral rate.
- Kazimir provided a slightly more cautious view, still requiring “unyielding confirmation that inflation remains on a downward course despite all the surrounding risks”.
- The Eurozone flash January HICP print is due at 1000GMT/1100CET.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Mar-25 | 2.400 | -26.2 |
| Apr-25 | 2.203 | -45.9 |
| Jun-25 | 2.005 | -65.7 |
| Jul-25 | 1.926 | -73.6 |
| Sep-25 | 1.837 | -82.5 |
| Oct-25 | 1.820 | -84.2 |
| Dec-25 | 1.780 | -88.3 |
| Feb-26 | 1.777 | -88.5 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
MNI: UK FINAL JAN MANUF PMI 48.3 (FLASH: 48.2); DEC 47.0
Feb-03 09:30
- MNI: UK FINAL JAN MANUF PMI 48.3 (FLASH: 48.2); DEC 47.0
