BONDS: Bund Futures Underperforms
Bund Futures is still the underperformer within EGBs, but is still short of that 2.95%.
Looking at the French 10yr, Yield printed a 3.631% high this Month, its highest level since November 2011.
Today, reference 120.99:
- 3.631% = 120.82.
- 3.650% = 120.64 (better support will be seen here).
The German curve sees the 2s/30s steepen through 100.00, highest since July 2022, and a similar high print in the 2s/10s.
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US TSY FUTURES: Mix Of Long Cover & Short Setting On Tuesday
OI data points to a mix of net long cover (FV, TY, UXY & WN) and short setting (TU & US) during yesterday’s sell off in futures, with the former more prominent in DV01 equivalent terms.
| 11-Feb-25 | 10-Feb-25 | Daily OI Change | OI DV01 Equivalent Change ($) |
TU | 4,110,195 | 4,097,523 | +12,672 | +466,076 |
FV | 6,363,633 | 6,400,028 | -36,395 | -1,497,290 |
TY | 4,874,641 | 4,885,820 | -11,179 | -712,661 |
UXY | 2,257,981 | 2,272,622 | -14,641 | -1,276,988 |
US | 2,014,776 | 2,004,320 | +10,456 | +1,313,692 |
WN | 1,794,911 | 1,798,699 | -3,788 | -718,735 |
|
| Total | -42,875 | -2,425,907 |
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Monitoring Pivot Resistance In USDJPY
- In FX, a short-term bull theme in EURUSD remains intact for now. Attention is on the candle formation on Feb 3 - a hammer - that signals a possible reversal. However, additional reinforcing price evidence is required to signal a turn in the trend. MA studies remain in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend. 1.0427, the 50-day EMA, marks a key resistance. A clear break of it would be a bullish development. The bear trigger is 1.0141, the Feb 3 low.
- GBPUSD found support Tuesday but for now, continues to trade below its Feb 5 high. Price recently traded above the 20- and 50-day EMAs, and pierced 1.2523, the Jan 27 high. A resumption of gains would signal scope for a move towards 1.2610, 38.2% of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. Key short-term support to watch has been defined at 1.2249, the Feb 3 low. Clearance of this level would instead highlight a reversal and strengthen a bearish threat.
- USDJPY is trading higher today as it extends the recovery from the Feb 7 low. For now, the move higher appears to be a correction and this is allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. Key short-term resistance is seen at 154.51, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of this average would highlight a stronger reversal of the Jan 10 - Feb 7 bear leg. A break would open 155.89, the Feb 3 high. The key support and bear trigger is at 150.93, the Feb 7 low.
US: SOFR FIX - 12/02/25
SOFR FIX - Source BBG/CME
- 1M 4.31439 -0.00299
- 3M 4.31802 0.00298
- 6M 4.29233 0.00928
- 12M 4.24398 0.01958
