US NATGAS: Cali – Demand Stable to Bullish
Spot demand and forecasts signaling moderate bullishness, while Mexports are also stronger d/d.
- PG&E Citygate basis settled $0.075 mmbtu above HH d/d, while Malin priced $0.02 mmbtu above HH according to NGI.
- Total state-wide demand in California is currently at 4.71 bcf/d, up by around 0.26 bcf/d. Demand is 0.01 bcf/d above the 30-day average.
- Cali state-wide cools, adding 6 HDDs and losing 13 CDDs in the latest GFS model run. This change is most predominant in the 10-15 day window. Socal goes cooler with LA adding 9 HDDs and shedding 12 CDDs, while San Francisco also cools adding 7 HDDs with no CDDs in the 15day forecast.
- End user demand is up 173 mmcf/d to 3.97 bcf/d today. This compares to the 30-day average of 4.02 bcf/d.
- Exports to Mexico are stronger today at 0.45 bcf/d. This compares to 0.37 bcf/d yesterday and the 30-day average of 0.37 bcf/d.
- Net natural gas inflows to California via pipeline stand at 5.46 bcf/d, up by around 0.12 bcf/d on the day. Pipeline inflows are 0.08 bcf/d below the 30-day average.
- All demand, supply, and pipeline flows data is from Bloomberg.
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CANADA PM CARNEY TO MEET GOVERNOR GENERAL AT NOON
- CANADA PM CARNEY TO MEET GOVERNOR GENERAL AT NOON
- CARNEY EXPECTED TO SEEK ELECTION
US TSYS: Available "Extraordinary Measures" Pick Up Slightly From Lows
Treasury has $163B of "extraordinary measures" remaining for authorities to use to fend off hitting the debt limit as of March 19, per the latest release of Treasury data. That's up from $86B on Mar 17 and a low of $34B on Feb 24.
- That's a little under half of the $377B in measures available to Treasury, with most of the amount remaining ($143B) coming from the so-called "G Fund".
- This headroom is in addition to $416B in cash left in the TGA, at last count.
- We haven't seen any changes recently to "x-dates" by when Treasury will run out of cash until the debt limit is lifted.
- Consensus still centers around late July/early August, but much will depend on April's major mid-month tax take. Treasury wrote to Congress last week that they would be able to provide an update on the x-date in the first half of May, after the conclusion of tax season.
USDCAD TECHS: Short-Term Outlook Remains Bullish
- RES 4: 1.4793 High Feb 3 and key resistance
- RES 3: 1.4700 Round number resistance
- RES 2: 1.4641 76.4% retracement of the Feb 3 - 14 bear leg
- RES 1: 1.4452/4543 High Mar 13 / 4 and a bull trigger
- PRICE: 1.4345 @ 16:27 GMT Mar 21
- SUP 1: 1.4242 Low Mar 6 and a key near-term support
- SUP 2: 1.4151/4107 Low Feb 14 / 50.0% of Sep 25 - Feb 3 bull run
- SUP 3: 1.4011 Low Dec 5 ‘24
- SUP 4: 1.3944 61.8% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bull cycle
USDCAD is trading closer to its recent lows. The bull cycle that started Feb 14 remains intact and moving average studies remain in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Note that the latest pullback has exposed a near-term key support at 1.4242, the Mar 6 low. Clearance of this level would undermine the bull theme and instead highlight potential for a test of 1.4151, the Feb 14 low and a bear trigger. The bull trigger is 1.4543, the Mar 4 high.
