SONIA: Call spread buyer

• RES 4: 161.35 61.8% retracement of the Dec 30 - Feb 10 bear leg     
• RES 3: 161.19 High Feb 13       
• RES 2: 159.65 50-day EMA and key short-term resistance 
• RES 1: 157.97 20-day EMA
• PRICE: 156.53 @ 07:34 GMT Mar 3 
• SUP 1: 154.80 Low Feb 28
• SUP 2: 154.42 Low Aug 5 ‘24 and key medium-term support
• SUP 3: 153.87 Low Dec 14 ‘23
• SUP 4: 152.72 1.00 proj of the Jan 24 - Feb 10 - 13 price swing 

A bearish theme in EURJPY remains present and Friday’s print below support at 155.61, the Feb 10 low, reinforces this theme. A resumption of the bear leg and a clear breach of the support would expose the key medium-term handle at 154.42, the Aug 5 ‘24 low. Clearance of this level would highlight an important technical break. Initial firm resistance to watch is 157.97, the 20-day EMA. Key resistance is 159.65, the 50-day EMA.

• The Dollar is on the back foot going into the European session despite the push higher in Yields, the SEK is the best early performer with the Scandie trading in the green across G10s, albeit still within past ranges.
• The SEK is testing new early intraday high versus the NOK, EUR and USD.
• While most will look at Friday's low of 10.7043 as initial support, better is seen towards 10.6000 in USDSEK.
• The Swedish Mfg PMI was better than last, but not a known market mover.

• RES 4: 6200.00 Round number resistance    
• RES 3: 6178.75 High Dec 6 ‘24 and key resistance 
• RES 2: 6035.99/6166.50 50-day EMA / High Jan 19
• RES 1: 5984.50 Intraday high                  
• PRICE: 5973.75 @ 07:20 GMT Mar 3  
• SUP 1: 5848.00 Low Feb 28               
• SUP 2: 5809.00 Low Jan 13 and a reversal trigger
• SUP 3: 5784.00 Low Nov 4 ’24  
• SUP 4: 5730.00 Low Sep 18 ‘24   

Recent weakness in the S&P E-Minis contract has resulted in a breach of a number of important supports; 6014.00, the Feb 10 low, and 5935.50, the Feb 3 low. The sharp move down signals scope for a deeper retracement and has exposed the next key support at 5809.00, the Jan 13 low. Clearance of this level would highlight a stronger reversal. On the upside, initial firm resistance to watch is 6038.96, the 50-day EMA.