SONIA: Call spread vs put

• RES 4: 5970.87 61.8% retracement of the Feb 19 - Mar 13 bear leg  
• RES 3: 5924.59 50-day EMA  
• RES 2: 5864.25 Low Jan 13 and a recent breakout level
• RES 1: 5837.25 High Mar 25                    
• PRICE: 5826.50 @ 07:22 GMT Mar 26  
• SUP 1: 5650.75/5559.75 Low Mar 18 / 13 and the bear trigger                  
• SUP 2: 5483.50 2.00 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing 
• SUP 3: 5396.00 2.236 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing
• SUP 4: 5341.87 2.382 proj of the Dec 6 ‘24 - Jan 13 - Feb 19 swing          

S&P E-Minis are trading at their recent highs. The trend condition is bearish and the latest recovery appears corrective. MA studies remain in a bear-mode set-up, highlighting a dominant downtrend. However, this week’s gains have resulted in a breach of the 20-day EMA. This signals scope for a continuation higher near-term - towards 5864.25, the Jan 13 low. A reversal lower would refocus attention on 5559.75, the Mar 13 low and bear trigger.

• RES 4: $76.57 - High Jan 15 and the bull trigger   
• RES 3: $72.91 - High Feb 11 and key resistance 
• RES 2: $70.98 - High Feb 25  
• RES 1: $69.68 - High Mar 25  
• PRICE: $69.22 @ 07:19 GMT Mar 26
• SUP 1: $64.85 - Low Mar 5 and the bear trigger   
• SUP 2: $63.73 - Low Sep 10 ‘24 and a key medium-term support
• SUP 3: $60.00 - Psychological round number
• SUP 4: $59.40 - 2.00 proj of the Jan 15 - Feb 4 - 11 price swing   

Despite recent gains, a bearish trend condition in WTI futures remains intact. However, a key pivot resistance at $69.12, the 50-day EMA, has been pierced. A clear breach of this hurdle would strengthen a bullish theme and open $70.98, the Feb 25 high. For bears, a reversal lower would expose the bear trigger at $64.85, the Mar 5 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend and open $63.73 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. 

• Looking in more detail - the survey date was 18 February. That had been uncertain and wasn't the base case of all sell side analysts. That puts the survey period during the half term school holidays. Despite this air fares contributed negatively, by -0.01ppt.
• Clothing and footwear contributed -0.14ppt to the -0.15ppt change in headline CPI (and were also the big driver of soft core goods). There was a -0.60%Y/Y fall versus a 1.75%Y/Y increase in January. The ONS notes that the February figure was the first negative annual rate since October 2021. It was largely driven by women's garments.
• Data processing equipment, second hand cars and personal effects offset some of this, contributing +0.06ppt, +0.02ppt and +0.02ppt to headline CPI respectively. Furniture, tools and recording media each contributed -0.02ppt, with smaller falls across most other core goods categories. 

Looking within services:

• Restaurants and cafes contributed 0.05ppt to headline CPI - rising 4.08%Y/Y from 3.53%Y/Y in Jan.
• Telephone and telefax equipment and services contributed +0.03ppt - rising 6.88%Y/Y from 5.46%Y/Y. The breakdown will be important here - how much is indexed services that will be persistent?
• Cultural services contributed -0.04ppt to headline CPI - rising 4.69%Y/Y, down from 6.24%Y/Y. This can often be reversed.
• Accommodation services contributed -0.05ppt to headline CPI, rising 1.41%Y/Y from 2.85%Y/Y in Jan. Note that this includes the new methodology of including advance bookings instead of just night before bookings.
• Rental prices contributed -0.03ppt to headline CPI rising 7.43%Y/Y from 7.79%Y/Y in Jan.

And non-core:

• Alcoholic beverage prices contributed +0.03ppt (increasing 2.48%Y/Y, up from 1.01%Y/Y in Jan).
• There were negligible contributions from the rest of food, non-alcoholic beverages and tobacco.
• Fuels and lubricants (for vehicles) -0.01ppt contribution to headline CPI (broadly in line).