OIL: Campaign to Take Out Russian Infrastructure Gains Steam: OPIS

Large Condor in Euribor is still trading, multiple clips:

• ERM5 98.125/98.25/98.375/98.50c condor, bought for half in ~53k total now.

• TYH5 has seen session highs of 108-24+ (3-4 ticks higher on the move) after Reuters reported a Trump official confirming the earlier WSJ report that he’ll stop short of imposing tariffs on day one of his second term.
• A Bloomberg report had also landed in the interim suggesting at least no intention to unveil China-specific tariffs on day one whilst looking to negotiate with China.
• Resistance is seen at Friday’s high of 108-27+ before 109-06 (Dec 31 high) but gains are deemed corrective from a technical perspective, against a medium-term bear trend with support at 108-00 (Jan 16 low). It earlier today saw 108-08+.
• Cumulative volumes still lag heavily with the US out for MLK Day, currently only 370k for ~40% of recent averages.
• Fed Funds futures meanwhile have seen cut expectations build to 40bp for 2025 vs 38bp as what would be the US crossover and 32bp prior to last week’s CPI report. 

• RES 4: 1.4671 2.0% 10-dma envelope
• RES 3: 1.4539 3.382 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 2: 1.4508 3.236 proj of the Oct 17 - Nov 1 - 6 price swing
• RES 1: 1.4486 Intraday high  
• PRICE: 1.4280 @ 14:42 GMT Jan 20 
• SUP 1: 1.4262 Intraday low  
• SUP 2: 1.4226 50-day EMA
• SUP 3: 1.4120 Low Dec 11 
• SUP 4: 1.4011 Low Dec 5

A sharp sell-off in USDCAD today has resulted in a print below support at 1.4280, the 20-day EMA. Pice has also traded through the 20-day EMA, at 1.4364. The reversal has exposed the next key support at 1.4226, the 50-day EMA. A clear breach of the 50-day EMA would undermine the recent bullish theme and signal scope for a deeper retracement. Key resistance and the bull trigger has been defined at 1.4486, today’s intraday high.