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A strong rally in EURGBP last week highlights a clear short-term reversal. The cross is trading above both the 20- and 50-day EMAs. The latest impulsive rally signals scope for an extension towards 0.8419, a Fibonacci retracement point. On the downside, initial firm support is seen at 0.8328, the 50-day EMA. Key short-term support is unchanged at 0.8241, the Mar 3 low. For now, a pullback would be considered corrective.
A “major new study” from More in Common, based on polling of 7,000 people across France, Germany, the UK, The US and Poland, has found that, “despite the breakdown in relations between Donald Trump and his Ukrainian counterpart Voldoymyr Zelenskyy, there remains strong public support for Europe to stand by Ukraine.”
Figure 1: “Thinking about the war in Ukraine, how important is it for (your country) that Ukraine defends its sovereignty against Russian aggression?”
Source: More in Common
The trend in GBPUSD remains bullish and the pair is holding on to last week’s gains. Moving average studies have recently crossed into a bull-mode position, highlighting a stronger uptrend. The pair is testing 1.2924, the 61.8% retracement of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. A clear break of this level would open 1.2990, the Nov 8 2024 high. Initial firm support is 1.2593, the 50-day EMA. A pullback would be considered corrective.