US TSYS: Modestly Cheaper To Start Inauguration Day
Jan-20 11:45
Cash Treasuries are closed today for Martin Luther King Day whilst futures markets are set for an early close at 1300ET.
Focus is firmly on Trump’s inauguration, due to be sworn in at 1200ET and with eyes on executive orders that may follow. See our political risk team’s schedule for the day: https://media.marketnews.com/MNIPOLRISK_Inauguration_Day_Schedule_07a11994f9.pdf
TYH5 pushed through Friday’s low overnight with 108-10 (currently 108-12+, -05) but still carries some of the impact from a dovish Waller on Thu and all of Wednesday’s CPI impact. Cumulative volumes are unsurprisingly extremely thin, at 165k.
Gains are considered corrective against a medium-term bearish trend condition. Resistance is seen at 108-27+ (Jan 17 high) whilst support is seen at 108-00 (Jan 13 low).
Fed Funds futures meanwhile price a cumulative 7.5bp of cuts for Mar, 13bp for May, 23bp for Jun, 26bp for Jul and 38bp for 2025 (the latter vs 32bp pre-CPI).
EURIBOR OPTIONS: Large Call Condor is bought for more
Jan-20 11:45
Large Condor in Euribor is still trading, multiple clips:
ERM5 98.125/98.25/98.375/98.50c condor, bought for half in ~40k.