RUSSIA: CBR's Nabiullina Will Serve Until 2027 Despite Attacks: Reuters
Apr-23 11:55
Russian central bank chief Elvira Nabiullina is safe in her job for two more years with President Vladimir Putin's personal support but the Kremlin will face a succession dilemma when her record tenure ends in 2027, Reuters report citing sources.
- "Nabiullina will stay in her role until her term expires in 2027 - when, by law, she has to step down - according to two senior sources who spoke to Reuters on condition of anonymity due to the sensitivity of the situation."
- "The sources [...] told Reuters that Nabiullina was safe provided that no major policy mistakes occurred."
- "But some insiders are already talking about "Problem 2027", by which they mean the challenge of replacing not only Nabiullina but members of her team who may be tempted by more lucrative jobs elsewhere once she is no longer around."
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US TSYS: Extending Lows, Cautious Risk-On, Deal-Tied Selling
Mar-24 11:50
- Treasuries continue to inch lower as more US desks come online, cautious risk-on amid "targeted tariffs" headlines that has buoyed stocks overnight SPX Eminis currently +67.25 at 5785.50, narrowing the focus on tariffs ahead of Pres' Trump's April 2 Liberation Day.
- Jun'25 Tsy 10Y futures currently -11 at 110-24 low, initial technical support at 110-20.5 (20-day EMA) followed by 110-12.5 (Low Mar 6 & 13). Curves mildly mixed, 2s10s +.549 at 29.941, 5s30s -1.294 at 57.129 (after nearly breaching 60.0 last Friday, steepest level since late September).
- Pick-up in corporate bond issuance is spurring additional rate lock selling, Hyundai 5pt from 2Y to 7Y expected today.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - WTI Resistance To Watch Is The 50-Day EMA
Mar-24 11:48
- On the commodity front, a clear uptrend in Gold is intact and last week’s resumption of the bull cycle reinforces current conditions. The yellow metal is holding on to the bulk of its recent gains. Last Thursday’s fresh trend high reinforces the bull theme and sights are on $3079.2 next, a 2.618 projection of the Nov 14 - Dec 12 - 19 price swing. Note that moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend and positive market sentiment. Support is at $2962.0, the 20-day EMA.
- In the oil space, despite holding on to its recent gains, a bearish condition in WTI futures remains intact and the latest recovery appears corrective. Key pivot resistance to watch is $69.12, the 50-day EMA. A resumption of the downtrend would signal scope for an extension towards $63.73 next, the Oct 10 ‘24 low. Moving average studies are in a bear-mode position, highlighting a dominant downtrend.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - USDJPY Correction Still In Play
Mar-24 11:24
- In FX, EURUSD has entered a corrective phase and continues to trade below its recent highs. The trend outlook is unchanged - a bull cycle remains in play. MA studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a dominant uptrend. Sights on 1.0961 next, the 76.4% retracement of the Sep 25 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg. Clearance of this level would open 1.1040, the Oct 4 ‘24 high. First support to watch is 1.0756, the 20-day EMA.
- The GBPUSD trend condition remains bullish and the latest shallow pullback is considered corrective. Moving average studies are in a bull-mode position, highlighting a clear dominant uptrend. The pair has recently breached a Fibonacci retracement at 1.2924, 61.8% of the Sep 26 ‘24 - Jan 13 bear leg. The clear break of this price point opens 1.3048, the Nov 6 2024 high. Initial firm support to watch is 1.2855, the 20-day EMA.
- The primary trend direction in USDJPY is down and recent gains are considered corrective. Key resistance to watch is 151.01, the 50-day EMA. A clear break of this average would signal scope for a stronger rally. For bears, a resumption of weakness would refocus attention on key support and the bear trigger at 146.54, the Mar 11 low. Clearance of this level would resume the downtrend.
