EMERGING MARKETS: CEEMEA FX Price Signal Summary - USDTRY Signal Remain Bullish
Feb-07 12:16
- The Jan 27 rebound in USDZAR continues to highlight a possible early reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle. The pattern also signals the end of the corrective cycle between Jan 13 - 24. Monday’s initial rally reinforces this set-up. A resumption of gains would expose key short-term resistance at 19.2296, the Jan 13 high. Clearance of this level would confirm a resumption of the uptrend. Support to watch is 18.3022, the Jan 24 low. A breach of this level would reinstate the recent bear cycle and open 18.2343 and 17.992, the 61.8% and 76.4% retracement points of the upleg between Dec 12 - Jan 13.
- The path of least resistance in USDTRY is unchanged and remains up. Fresh cycle highs highlight a continuation of the trend. The 36.00 handle has been tested, a clear break of it would open 37.00. Support at the 20-day EMA, lies at 35.6830.
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PIPELINE: Council of Europe Dev Bank 5Y SOFR Launched
Jan-08 12:15
While domestic issuers have stepped receded after the record issuance since Monday ($96.5B), foreign bank and supra sovereign US$ issuance continues:
- Date $MM Issuer (Priced *, Launch #)
- 01/08 $6B *World Bank 7Y +54
- 01/08 $1.5B #CoE Dev Bank 5Y SOFR+42
- 01/08 $Benchmark NWB 5Y SOFR+50a
- 01/08 $Benchmark IADB 5Y SOFR+42a
- 01/08 $Benchmark Ontario 5Y SOFR+58
- 01/08 $Benchmark Kommunalbanken 5Y +48
- 01/08 $Benchmark Indonesia 5Y 5.65%a, 10Y 5.95%a
GILT TECHS: (H5) Downtrend Accelerates
Jan-08 12:12
- RES 4: 93.09 High Dec 20
- RES 3: 92.88 20-day EMA
- RES 2: 92.13/60 High Jan 7 / 3
- RES 1: 91.58 Intraday high
- PRICE: 90.48 @ 12:01 GMT Jan 8
- SUP 1: 90.29 Intraday low
- SUP 2: 90.00 Psychological round number
- SUP 3: 89.64 2.236 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing
- SUP 4: 8943 2.382 proj of the Dec 20 -27 - Jan 2 price swing
The trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, it remains bearish and this week’s fresh cycle lows reinforces current conditions. Today’s sell-off highlights an acceleration of the trend and maintains the price sequence of lower lows and lower highs. Sights are on the 90.00 psychological handle. Initial resistance is at 91.58, today’s intraday high. Resistance at the 20-day EMA, is at 92.88, and the average is seen as an important hurdle for bulls.
OUTLOOK: Price Signal Summary - Bull Cycle In Oil Futures Remains Intact
Jan-08 12:03
- On the commodity front, a bear threat in Gold remains present despite the latest recovery. A resumption of weakness would open key support at $2536.9, the Nov 14 low. The first firm support to watch is $2583.6, the Dec 19 low. On the upside, a strong climb would instead signal scope for a climb towards resistance at $2726.2, the Dec 12 high.
- In the oil space, the trend structure in WTI futures remains bullish and the contract has traded higher again, today. A stronger reversal to the upside has exposed key short-term resistance at $76.41, the Oct 8 high. On the downside, a reversal lower would expose support at the 20-day EMA, at $71.11. This average is seen as a key short-term support.
