UK FISCAL: CGNCR Numbers Add GBP51.7bln to gilt issuance over next 5 years
Mar-26 13:44
- The CGNCR OBR forecasts for 2025/26 through to 2029/30 will add a combined GBP51.7bln to gilt issuance over 5-years.
- Only GBP7.9bln of this is in 2025/26, with double digit of GBP billions in 2026/27 through to 2028/29.
- See the table below.
- Note that the IGDR (indicative gross financing requirement) has increased due to a combination of gilt issuance since the October Budget. So these numbers will continue to increase (particularly as 3/5 year gilts are issued). So gross gilt issuance is expected to remain north of GBP270bln - and probably close to GBP300bln - for at least three more years after the upcoming 2025/26 fiscal year has concluded.
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US TSY FUTURES: BLOCK: Mar'25 10Y Buy
Feb-24 13:43
- +5,300 TYH5 109-17.5, post-time offer at 0830:02ET, DV01 $335,000. The 10Y contract remains under pressure, however, trading 109-16 last (-6).
GILTS: Roll Activity Continues To Tick Over, Around A Third Complete
Feb-24 13:39
Futures roll trading continues to tick over, with the H5/M5 spread trading down from 0 to -5 over the past week or so as activity has picked up ahead of Thursday’s first notice for H5.
- Spread last -5/-4.
- Latest indications point to just under 32% roll completion vs. just under 20% at Friday’s close.
US TSY FUTURES: March'25/June'25 Treasury Futures Roll Update
Feb-24 13:27
The latest Tsy quarterly futures from March'25 to June'25 below. Heavy overnight volumes as overall percentage complete nears 50% before June takes lead quarterly next week Friday. Current roll details:
- TUH5/TUM5 appr 238,100 from -6.25 to -6.0, -6.12 last, 35% complete
- FVH5/FVM5 appr 896,300 from -3.5 to -2.75, -3.0 last, 37% complete
- TYH5/TYM5 appr 244,200 from -0.25 to 0.00, 0.0 last, 38% complete
- UXYH5/UXYM5 appr 117,400 from 4.75 to 5.0, 4.75 last, 26% complete
- USH5/USM5 appr 109,200 from 5.5 to 6.5, 6.0 last, 34% complete
- WNH5/WNM5 appr 109,000 from 4.5 to 5.0, 4.5 last, 33% complete
- Reminder, March futures won't expire until next month: 10s, 30s and Ultras on March 20, 2s and 5s on March 31. March options expired last Friday.
