US DATA: Challenger Job Cuts Surge On DOGE And More
Mar-06 13:02
* Challenger job cut announcements surged in February to 172k, the highest for a February since 20...
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
GILTS: Recent Long Building In Futures May Have Factored Into Morning Weakness
Feb-04 13:00
Open interest data points to fresh net long setting in gilt futures across each of the last 4 sessions, with a ~23K increase in contract OI (~2.4% of OI as of last Tuesday’s close) seen as the contract rallied by 110 ticks.
- This positioning may have factored into this morning’s weakness in the contract, particularly if the long setting was dominated by short-term accounts.
EURIBOR TECHS: Net Long Setting and Short Cover Dominated Again On Monday
Feb-04 12:39
OI data points to another session of net long setting and net short cover in Euribor futures on Monday, as tariff-related Eurozone growth concerns reignited following weekend developments between the US, Mexico, Canada and China.
- Although the Whites saw a modest net OI increase of 4.2k, this masked sizeable adjustments in ERM5 (+28.9k) and ERZ5 (-35.8k).
| 03/02/2025 | 31/01/2025 | Daily OI Change | Daily OI Change In Packs | ||
| ERH5 | 567,354 | 553,447 | +13,907 | Whites | +4,210 |
| ERM5 | 764,247 | 735,364 | +28,883 | Reds | -16,732 |
| ERU5 | 514,148 | 516,879 | -2,731 | Greens | -8,445 |
| ERZ5 | 619,767 | 655,616 | -35,849 | Blues | -1,160 |
| ERH6 | 407,753 | 412,436 | -4,683 | ||
| ERM6 | 333,297 | 343,631 | -10,334 | ||
| ERU6 | 262,963 | 261,077 | +1,886 | ||
| ERZ6 | 289,139 | 292,740 | -3,601 | ||
| ERH7 | 154,616 | 154,087 | +529 | ||
| ERM7 | 123,425 | 123,882 | -457 | ||
| ERU7 | 91,910 | 95,693 | -3,783 | ||
| ERZ7 | 114,933 | 119,667 | -4,734 | ||
| ERH8 | 55,090 | 54,987 | +103 | ||
| ERM8 | 44,121 | 43,861 | +260 | ||
| ERU8 | 28,862 | 29,648 | -786 | ||
| ERZ8 | 42,925 | 43,662 | -737 |
CANADA: Yields Extend Tariff-Delay Climb, Intermeeting Cut Odds Disappear
Feb-04 12:27
- US tariffs on Canada were postponed in the hours before they were due to become effective yesterday, with a formal delay to Mar 4.
- PM Trudeau announced Canada is implementing its C$1.3bn border plan and that 10,000 frontline personnel are and will be working on protecting the border. Amongst other appeasing measures announced, it will appoint a fentanyl czar and will list cartels as terrorists.
- USDCAD saw a low of 1.4387 late yesterday (currently 1.4436) to completely reverse yesterday’s lurch to 1.4793. That low probed support at 1.4398 (20-day EMA) after which lies 1.4290 (50-day EMA).
- BoC-dated OIS points to 16-17bp of cuts for the Mar 12 meeting in early trade vs the 25-30bps seen for much of yesterday.
- Intermeeting cut plays have disappeared, with no cuts priced in for 1m OIS vs 2bps seen after the Mexico delay and more than 4bp prior to that.
- CORRA futures implied yields lead climbs in G10 on the day after yesterday’s slide, with yields up to 13bp higher in early trading.
- The Mar’26 yield has climbed 24bp from yesterday’s low seen pre-Mexico delay, leaving a terminal yield of 2.44% (BoC neutral seen between 2.25-3.25%, overnight rate currently 3.00%). It’s still almost 30bps below levels prior to Trump’s inauguration.
