AUDUSD TECHS: Challenging Resistance
- RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12
- RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 ‘24 - Feb 3 bear leg
- RES 2: 0.6384 High Dec 13
- RES 1: 0.6334 Intraday high
- PRICE: 0.6333 @ 08:09 GMT Feb 14
- SUP 1: 0.6231 Low Feb 10
- SUP 3: 0.6171/6088 Low Feb 4 / 3
- SUP 3: 0.6045 1.500 proj of the Sep 30 - Nov 6 - 7 price swing
- SUP 4: 0.6000 Round number support
AUDUSD is trading higher again, today. The pair has breached resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6301. Attention is on 0.6331 (pierced), the Jan 24 high and a key short-term resistance. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open 0.6414, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position. This suggests the latest recovery is a correction. Initial support to watch is 0.6231, the Feb 10 low.
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STIR: Dovish Repricing Post UK CPI, 90bps of ECB Cuts Priced Through '25
Dovish repricing in EUR STIRs following the lower-than-expected UK CPI reading, with ECB-dated OIS now back to pricing 91bps of cuts through the course of this year (vs 87bps at yesterday’s close).
- Euribor futures remain within yesterday’s range, now +0.5 to +4.0 ticks through the blues versus yesterday’s settlement levels.
- Overnight, ECB Chief Economist Lane played down the short-term impact of exchange rate movements on imported inflation, but noted that the euro “plays a role” over time.
- French and Spanish final December HICP inflation confirmed flash estimates.
- ECB Vice President de Guindos is scheduled to speak at 0820GMT, with Villeroy and Vujcic expected around 0830GMT.
- Eurozone November industrial production is due at 1000GMT, though primary global focus will be on the US CPI report at 1330GMT.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jan-25 | 2.675 | -24.4 |
| Mar-25 | 2.445 | -47.4 |
| Apr-25 | 2.303 | -61.6 |
| Jun-25 | 2.165 | -75.4 |
| Jul-25 | 2.116 | -80.3 |
| Sep-25 | 2.050 | -86.9 |
| Oct-25 | 2.035 | -88.4 |
| Dec-25 | 2.013 | -90.6 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
MNI: SPAIN DEC HICP 0.4% M/M, 2.8% Y/Y
- MNI: SPAIN DEC HICP 0.4% M/M, 2.8% Y/Y
GILTS: Opening calls
Gilt calls, these DO NOT take into account the UK CPI, and given that Sonia is up 11.5 ticks in the red, Desks will look for further upside risks.
- Range would have been 89.30/89.47.
