AUDUSD is trading higher again, today. The pair has breached resistance at the 50-day EMA, at 0.6301. Attention is on 0.6331 (pierced), the Jan 24 high and a key short-term resistance. A clear break of it would highlight a stronger reversal and open 0.6414, a Fibonacci retracement. Note that moving average studies remain in a bear-mode position. This suggests the latest recovery is a correction. Initial support to watch is 0.6231, the Feb 10 low.
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Dovish repricing in EUR STIRs following the lower-than-expected UK CPI reading, with ECB-dated OIS now back to pricing 91bps of cuts through the course of this year (vs 87bps at yesterday’s close).
Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
Jan-25 | 2.675 | -24.4 |
Mar-25 | 2.445 | -47.4 |
Apr-25 | 2.303 | -61.6 |
Jun-25 | 2.165 | -75.4 |
Jul-25 | 2.116 | -80.3 |
Sep-25 | 2.050 | -86.9 |
Oct-25 | 2.035 | -88.4 |
Dec-25 | 2.013 | -90.6 |
Source: MNI/Bloomberg. |
Gilt calls, these DO NOT take into account the UK CPI, and given that Sonia is up 11.5 ticks in the red, Desks will look for further upside risks.