AUDUSD TECHS: Challenging Resistance
Feb-14 08:10
* RES 4: 0.6429 High Dec 12 * RES 3: 0.6414 38.2% retracement of the Sep 30 '24 - Feb 3 bear leg * R...
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STIR: Dovish Repricing Post UK CPI, 90bps of ECB Cuts Priced Through '25
Jan-15 08:08
Dovish repricing in EUR STIRs following the lower-than-expected UK CPI reading, with ECB-dated OIS now back to pricing 91bps of cuts through the course of this year (vs 87bps at yesterday’s close).
- Euribor futures remain within yesterday’s range, now +0.5 to +4.0 ticks through the blues versus yesterday’s settlement levels.
- Overnight, ECB Chief Economist Lane played down the short-term impact of exchange rate movements on imported inflation, but noted that the euro “plays a role” over time.
- French and Spanish final December HICP inflation confirmed flash estimates.
- ECB Vice President de Guindos is scheduled to speak at 0820GMT, with Villeroy and Vujcic expected around 0830GMT.
- Eurozone November industrial production is due at 1000GMT, though primary global focus will be on the US CPI report at 1330GMT.
| Meeting Date | ESTR ECB-Dated OIS (%) | Difference Vs. Current Effective ESTR Rate (bp) |
| Jan-25 | 2.675 | -24.4 |
| Mar-25 | 2.445 | -47.4 |
| Apr-25 | 2.303 | -61.6 |
| Jun-25 | 2.165 | -75.4 |
| Jul-25 | 2.116 | -80.3 |
| Sep-25 | 2.050 | -86.9 |
| Oct-25 | 2.035 | -88.4 |
| Dec-25 | 2.013 | -90.6 |
| Source: MNI/Bloomberg. | ||
MNI: SPAIN DEC HICP 0.4% M/M, 2.8% Y/Y
Jan-15 08:00
- MNI: SPAIN DEC HICP 0.4% M/M, 2.8% Y/Y
GILTS: Opening calls
Jan-15 07:57
Gilt calls, these DO NOT take into account the UK CPI, and given that Sonia is up 11.5 ticks in the red, Desks will look for further upside risks.
- Range would have been 89.30/89.47.
