Chicago Business Barometer™ - Advances to 39.5 in January

The Chicago Business Barometer™, produced with MNI increased 2.6 points to 39.5 in January. This is the first increase after three consecutive months of decline, though the index remains below both the level of November 2024 and the 2024 average.

RISE DRIVEN BY NEW ORDERS AND PRODUCTION

New Orders rebounded 13.8 points, more than reversing last month’s decline. This leaves it the highest since September 2024 and above the 2024 average.

Production expanded 4.0 points, to a similar level to that seen in November.

DECLINE IN SUPPLIER DELIVERIES, EMPLOYMENT AND ORDER BACKLOGS 

Supplier Deliveries more than reversed last month’s gains falling 13.5 points. The index reached its lowest level since August 2023 and saw its largest monthly fall since February 2008.

Employment dropped 9.0 points, to the lowest level recorded since June 2020. Two-thirds of respondents reported unchanged employment whilst nearly 30% reported lower levels of employment.

Order Backlogs edged down 0.8 points.

Inventories expanded 14.9 points, returning to expansionary levels for the first time since November 2023. This is after four consecutive months of decline. 

Prices Paid eased 2.7 points, this is the fourth successive fall and the lowest level since July 2024.