Chicago PMI Signals US Manufacturing Contraction in Q4

The ISM Manufacturing PMI weakened by 1.2 points to 49.0 in November, following a (more pronounced) slide in the Chicago PMI from 45.2 to 37.2 (see story here).

• The two indexes have a correlation coefficient of approx. 0.85 when calculated dating back to Jan 2008, implying a strong, positive relationship and a highly relevant advance indicator.
• The Chicago Business Barometer is a time-tested leading indicator for US GDP.

Source: MNI / Eikon (Reuters)