OIL: China Cutting Saudi Crude Buying in March: Kpler

• In the FI space, the Jan 15 rally in Bund futures highlighted a short-term reversal signal - a bullish engulfing candle. It suggests scope for a continued corrective phase that is also allowing an oversold trend condition to unwind. A continuation higher would open 132.41, the 20-day EMA. The medium-term trend is unchanged, it remains bearish. The bear trigger has been defined at 130.28, the Jan 15 low. A break of it would resume the downtrend.
• The medium-term trend condition in Gilt futures is unchanged, the direction remains down. However, strong gains last week highlight a corrective phase and if correct, signals scope for a continuation higher near-term. Attention is resistance at the 20-day EMA, at 91.55. This average has been breached, a clear break would suggest scope for a stronger retracement, towards 92.75, the 50.0% retracement of the Dec 3 - Jan 13 bear leg. On the downside, the bear trigger has been defined at 88.96, the Jan 13 low. First support lies at 90.68, the Jan 16 low.

May price today.

• EUR Benchmark 5Y Fixed (Jan. 28, 2030) at MS+60.
  • Revised guidance was MS+60-65 area, initial guidance MS+70 area
  • Books above EU2.3b (excluding JLM interest): Leads
  • Coupon: Annual, act/act ICMA
• EUR Benchmark 15Y Fixed (Jan. 28, 2040) at MS+125
  • Revised guidance was MS+125-130 area, initial guidance MS+145 area
  • Books above EU2.7b (excluding JLM interest): Leads
  • Coupon: Annual, act/act ICMA
• Settlement: Jan. 28, 2025
• Bookrunners: BNPP (B&D), BofA, JPM
• Co-Lead (no books): SEB Lithuania
• Timing: May price today

Details as per Bloomberg

• EUR/USD: Jan22 $1.0345-50(E1.6bln), $1.0500(E1.1bln); Jan23 $1.0295-00(E2.7bln), $1.0400(E1.8bln), $1.0435-40(E1.0bln); Jan24 $1.0350(E1.4bln)
• USD/JPY: Jan22 Y155.50($1.2bln); Jan23 Y155.00($1.5bln)
• AUD/USD: Jan22 $0.6210(A$2.1bln)
• USD/CAD: Jan23 C$1.4450($1.1bln); Jan24 C$1.4380($1.4bln)
• USD/CNY: Jan23 Cny7.5000($1.9bln); Jan24 Cny7.4500($1.4bln)