OIL: China Press Conference Gives Oil a Boost Despite Softer Week. 

Oil prices are moderately lower today following data showing another large US inventory build. They rose over Monday and Tuesday on supply concerns. WTI is down 0.4% to $73.05/bbl after a low of $72.93 and Brent is 0.3% lower at $76.74/bbl. The USD index is 0.1% higher, which is also likely weighing on dollar-denominated crude.

• Bloomberg reported that there was a US oil stock build of another 9mn barrels last week, according to people familiar with the API data. Flows from Canada have been ramped up in recent weeks to beat tariffs. Product inventories were lower with gasoline down 2.5mn and distillate 600k. The official EIA data is out later today.
• Despite tighter US sanctions on Russia appearing to impact its output and stricter enforcement of those against Iran have been announced, the US’ EIA increased its expectations of excess supply in 2025 and 2026. The market has been concerned about the impact of protectionism on global demand. OPEC’s monthly report is published today and the IEA’s on Thursday, which tends to be less optimistic regarding the outlook than OPEC.
• Later Fed Chair Powell testifies to the House financial services committee and the Fed’s Bostic and Waller also speak. January US CPI prints and Bloomberg consensus is expecting no change in the headline at 2.9% but for core to ease 0.1pp to 3.1% (see MNI US CPI Preview). January budget and real earnings data are also out. The ECB’s Elderson speaks at an MNI Connect event and BoE’s Greene appears.

Chinese and Hong Kong equities saw mixed moves today, with AI-related stocks continuing their rally, while pressure mounted on consumer and healthcare sectors. DeepSeek's AI-driven surge remains a key bullish driver, with Morgan Stanley, JPMorgan, and UBS expressing optimism that the rally is far from over. The MSCI China Index has now gained 15% from its January low, supported by increased global investor interest in the nation’s tech sector.

• Medical equipment stocks surged after Citigroup turned constructive on the sector, citing market share gains from foreign brands and long-term fundamentals. MicroPort MedBot (+8.5%), MicroPort Scientific (+5.7%), and Inkon Life (+7.7%) led the advance, with Citi highlighting potential stimulus measures at next month’s Two Sessions as a further catalyst.
• Meituan tumbled as much as 6.1% after JD.com announced it would waive annual commissions for new restaurant partners, intensifying competition in the food delivery sector. JD.com shares rose 2%, while Alibaba share surged almost 7%. The HStech Index tracked Alibaba higher, however has since given back about half of the mornings gains to trade 1.30% higher at the break.
• Key equity benchmarks: HSI is +1.56%, HS Property Index +2.15%, HS China Enterprise Index +1.50% while China Mainland equities underperform with the CSI 300 -0.10%.
• Overall, sentiment remains strong for AI and tech stocks, while consumer and platform businesses face increasing pressure from competition and regulatory concerns.

NZGBs closed in the middle of today’s ranges, with benchmark yields 3-4bps higher.  

• The NZGB 10-year outperformed its ACGB counterpart, with the AU-US yield differential 3bps tighter at +9bps. The NZ-US 10-year differential was unchanged at +1bp.
• Cash US tsys are ~1bp cheaper in today’s Asia-Pac session after yesterday’s modest sell-off. The focus is on key US CPI inflation data today at 0830ET.
• (MNI) Consensus sees core CPI inflation accelerating to a seasonally adjusted 0.3% M/M (unrounded 0.29%) in January after what was, for now, seen as a slightly softer-than-expected 0.225% M/M in December.
• The headline is expected only a touch stronger, at 0.32% M/M for a pullback from 0.39% owing to a sequential slowing in energy prices vs stronger food prices amidst a serious bird flu outbreak.
• There’s a good chance core CPI ‘surprises’ a tenth higher with 3.2% Y/Y owing to rounding, whilst headline CPI is widely expected to print 2.9% Y/Y.
• Swap rates closed 4-8bps higher, with the 2s10s curve steeper.
• RBNZ dated OIS pricing is unchanged. 49bps of easing is priced for February, with a cumulative 121bps by November 2025.
• Tomorrow, the local calendar will see Card Spending and 2Yr Inflation Expectations data.