REAL ESTATE: CityCon Tender: Scaling Factor
Mar-14 11:35
CityCon expect to accept 39.2964% of the CITCON 1.25% 26 tenders EUR 252,022,000 tendered EUR 100,0...
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EURIBOR: Put Condor buyer
Feb-12 11:28
ERM5 97.8125/97.75/97.6875/97.5625 broken p condor, bought for half in 8k.
LOOK AHEAD: Wednesday Data Calendar: CPI & Revisions, Fed Chair Powell in House
Feb-12 11:28
- US Data/Speaker Calendar (prior, estimate)
- 12-Feb 0700 MBA Mortgage Applications (2.2%, --)
- 12-Feb 0830 CPI MoM (0.4%, 0.3%), YoY (2.9%, 2.9%)
- 12-Feb 0830 CPI Ex Food & Energy MoM (0.2%, 0.3%), YoY (3.2%, 3.1%)
- 12-Feb 0830 Real Avg Weekly Earnings YoY (0.5% revised, --)
- 12-Feb 1000 Fed Chair Powell House Financial Services testimony
- 12-Feb 1130 US Tsy $62B 17W bill auction
- 12-Feb 1200 Atlanta Fed Bostic economic outlook (no text, Q&A)
- 12-Feb 1300 US Tsy $42B 10Y Note auction (91282CMM0)
- 12-Feb 1400 Federal Budget Balance (-$86.7B, -$94.8B)
- 12-Feb 1705 Fed Gov Waller on Stablecoins (text, Q&A)
STIR: Next Fed Cut Seen In Sept With CPI and Powell Response Eyed
Feb-12 11:26
- Fed Funds implied rates hold yesterday’s push higher (seen prior to Powell’s Senate appearance with his comments then consolidating the move) ahead of today’s US CPI report and Powell’s turn in the House.
- Cumulative cuts from 4.33% effective: 1bp Mar, 6.5bp May, 14bp Jun, 19bp Jul, 26bp Sep and 36bp Dec.
- CPI headlines today’s macro docket whilst the second day of Powell’s congressional testimony at 1000ET will be watched for any reaction to the data in the Q&A. He characterized the labor market as “very strong” vs “solid” in recent months, and noted the neutral rate has risen meaningfully since before the pandemic.
- MNI US CPI Preview: https://media.marketnews.com/USCPI_Prev_Feb2025_e3ccd233d6.pdf
- Today’s other Fedspeak sees only Bostic as set to talk on mon pol matters. We watch for any further hawkish shift with Hammack and Logan recently very subtly speculating about a possible rate hike as the Fed’s next move (more on that here).
- 1200ET – Bostic (non-voter) on economic outlook (Q&A only). He said earlier this month that he wants to see the impact of past cuts and may wait “for a while” and doesn’t think there will be inflation clarity by the Fed’s next meeting. He sees nominal neutral at 3-3.5%
- 1705ET – Waller (permanent voter) on stablecoins (text + Q&A)
