CHILE: CLP Buoyed By Further Rally In Copper
Apr-14 13:16
- The Chilean peso is trading on the front foot at the start of the week, buoyed by a further rally in copper prices amid the temporary reprieve in tariffs on key tech products.
- USDCLP has fallen by another 0.7% today, although losses have been pared in recent trade, having hit a session low at 962 earlier. The losses extend the move down for the pair from last week’s high to over 4%.
- USDCLP maintains a bullish tone and the latest pullback is - for now - considered corrective. However, today’s move narrows the gap to initial firm support at 956.22 the 50-day EMA. A break would open 942.36, the Apr 3 low.
- Amid a light data calendar, Finance Minister Marcel has said that the government will define the future of its tax reform this week, according to a report in La Tercera.
- Meanwhile, the latest election poll by Cadem reveals that centre-right candidate Evelyn Matthei remains the frontrunner for the presidential election with 20% of the vote, followed by far-right Johannes Kaiser (15%) and Jose Antonio Kast (14%).
Want to read more?
Find more articles and bullets on these widgets:
Historical bullets
FED: March Economic Projections: Higher Inflation, Weaker Growth, Same Rates
Mar-14 21:28
The MNI Markets Team’s expectations for the updated Economic Projections in the March SEP are below.
- The unemployment rate is likely to rise slightly for 2025 alongside a downgrade in GDP growth, while the 2025 core and headline PCE inflation projections are set to rise again. Changes to later years will likely be limited, however.
- More detail on the shift in Fed funds rate medians is in our meeting preview - we will add more color next week.
FED: Market Pricing Nearly 3 2025 Cuts As Conditions Tighten
Mar-14 21:25
Amid rising government policy uncertainty, sentiment among businesses and consumers has fallen sharply since the start of the year, while equities and the dollar have reversed their post-election rise. Overall, financial conditions have tightened, even if stress is not yet mounting, e.g. no major widening of credit spreads (the accompanying chart shows the Fed’s financial conditions impulse index but only through January).
- Combined with growth fears, this has affected expectations for the Fed’s rate path, with around 18bp more cuts expected in 2025 compared with what was seen after the January FOMC. 65bp of cuts are priced for the year as a whole. 2025 cut pricing reached 71bp before the February inflation data and 76bp before the February payrolls report.
- A rate cut is seen with near zero probability for March’s meeting, but the first full cut is just about priced for June, with a second nearly priced by September.
- Chair Powell has no reason to endorse or refute these expectations – he’s likely to be happy with a press conference that ends with little discernable change in pricing.
CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
Mar-14 21:17
- CANADA'S CARNEY ANNOUNCES ELIMINATION OF THE CONSUMER CARBON TAX
